World Politics · resolved market
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff9fc7e6239b4d92f24d9100f3b1415dfcbb34ec15afcdcc4359692b0517e20e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,934,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,163,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,934,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,071 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d52…50e6backed No | 3c | 85,712$2,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,143.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1795…3d80backed No | 4c | 77,806$3,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,189.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 26c | 70,579$17,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,998.03 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…2c1dbacked No | 0c | 69,779$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…ee2bbacked Yes | 74c | 51,384$38,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,162.09 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 42,980$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.99 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 18c | 37,733$6,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,767.63 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 62c | 37,483$23,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,182.79 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -62%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 62c | 33,594$20,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,918.59 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 9c | 27,367$2,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,452.54 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…2a64backed No | 5c | 24,601$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 56c | 21,147$11,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,254.46 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 74c | 20,489$15,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,422.79 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked No | 2c | 18,011$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.74 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 43c | 16,293$6,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,925.24 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 75c | 15,043$11,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,751.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad14…ce36backed No | 3c | 15,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 1c | 14,942$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…7820backed No | 2c | 14,784$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…11f2backed No | 2c | 14,750$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked Yes | 66c | 14,705$9,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,968.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…b4e0backed No | 0c | 12,660$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…e5ddbacked Yes | 50c | 11,287$5,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,615.35 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 74c | 10,804$7,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,823.35 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…4b87backed No | 26c | 10,700$2,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,813.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed Yes | 60c | 10,153$6,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,096.81 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…06f4backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 26c | 9,627$2,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,531.55 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 52c | 8,754$4,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,231.39 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…7c32backed No | 52c | 8,703$4,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,539.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 69c | 8,250$5,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,578.93 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…7b5ebacked No | 4c | 7,439$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.42 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed No | 3c | 6,644$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.44 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 45c | 6,630$2,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,978.94 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 59c | 6,174$3,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,501.55 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…47debacked No | 0c | 5,624$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…7ce4backed Yes | 57c | 5,500$3,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,389.98 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2038…6161backed Yes | 75c | 5,134$3,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…d789backed Yes | 66c | 4,518$2,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,518.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 61c | 4,500$2,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,744.98 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked No | 4c | 4,443$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.58 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 71c | 4,354$3,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.94 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…b532backed Yes | 70c | 4,159$2,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.37 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e10…9b8bbacked No | 37c | 4,032$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.01 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 5c | 4,000$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.55 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…1e9bbacked No | 5c | 3,776$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.97 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 3,665$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.07 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed No | 2c | 3,529$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 59c | 3,505$2,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.37 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…a33bbacked Yes | 62c | 3,398$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd511…241cbacked No | 3c | 3,200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 77c | 3,042$2,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.98 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 36c | 3,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 66c | 2,980$1,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.03 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked Yes | 52c | 2,897$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.11 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 71c | 2,895$2,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.96 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcade…79edbacked No | 55c | 2,865$1,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 55c | 2,534$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.7 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 69c | 2,444$1,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.53 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 33c | 2,412$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.96 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d2…57b8backed Yes | 65c | 2,336$1,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 3c | 2,279$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.41 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a37…3581backed No | 4c | 2,218$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 42c | 2,046$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.91 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9110…4a41backed No | 4c | 1,930$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed No | 14c | 1,850$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.43 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked Yes | 63c | 1,800$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.22 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -54%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed No | 42c | 1,800$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.99 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -7.2wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 4c | 1,790$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed No | 51c | 1,769$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.27 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…aa5bbacked Yes | 58c | 1,758$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 54c | 1,756$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.74 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ef…1935backed No | 2c | 1,672$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 5c | 1,666$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.76 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a1…5f52backed Yes | 68c | 1,644$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b0…7a8fbacked No | 4c | 1,622$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 64c | 1,569$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.82 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…ada6backed No | 3c | 1,564$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef7d…5e3fbacked No | 34c | 1,551$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Yes | 56c | 1,545$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.38 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed No | 3c | 1,531$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 56c | 1,519$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.98 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…abf2backed No | 3c | 1,431$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e49…0b46backed Yes | 73c | 1,427$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4022…d049backed Yes | 56c | 1,421$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.02 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe812…9db5backed No | 6c | 1,385$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 56c | 1,338$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.02 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a2…7c87backed Yes | 54c | 1,320$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 3c | 1,309$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…012bbacked No | 4c | 1,284$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd7c…d1d9backed No | 67c | 1,201$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 57c | 1,199$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.61 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815b…5ef7backed Yes | 75c | 1,146$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc428…4feabacked No | 7c | 1,100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…0b82backed Yes | 61c | 1,099$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked No | 3c | 1,090$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5655…623ebacked No | 49c | 1,072$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5f…cbbfbacked Yes | 47c | 1,060$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5269…9388backed No | 3c | 1,015$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Yes | 55c | 1,001$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.03 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?this page
- Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU and Greens form the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU, FDP, and Greens for the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and BSW form the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?No won
- Will SPD, FDP, and Greens form the next German Government?No won
- Will another coalition form the next German Government?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.