World Politics · resolved market
Will CDU/CSU and Greens form the next German Government?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb091b62f4d383e6a351630c099d565927c19b3d213ffc323d2e404ec9672530
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,182,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $202,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,182,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd91…8fe9backed Yes | 0c | 3,924,979$3,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,924.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 45,788$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.6 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa363…62f5backed Yes | 7c | 14,086$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 14,018$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.1 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 4c | 13,998$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 0c | 13,668$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 7c | 10,728$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.64 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 4c | 8,599$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.04 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed Yes | 5c | 8,455$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.06 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed Yes | 6c | 8,092$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.39 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…d35abacked Yes | 0c | 8,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf08a…7c1ebacked Yes | 0c | 8,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1701…4559backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 3c | 7,139$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.75 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 7c | 6,612$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.44 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0e…47bfbacked Yes | 6c | 5,659$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,452$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.87 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…e4a7backed Yes | 2c | 5,172$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.61 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 4c | 4,200$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.4 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c6…d8fabacked Yes | 8c | 3,083$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.9 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…b3bebacked Yes | 4c | 3,045$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.09 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…1cfebacked Yes | 5c | 3,023$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.77 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 7c | 2,972$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 4c | 2,538$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.41 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd5…cf04backed Yes | 11c | 2,139$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes | 8c | 2,113$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.39 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,020$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.96 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…96e6backed Yes | 11c | 1,868$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734f…b3b7backed Yes | 8c | 1,773$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.84 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a2…d376backed Yes | 3c | 1,682$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe638…8c4abacked Yes | 1c | 1,603$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefad…501fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,528$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82b…f570backed Yes | 3c | 1,487$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 7c | 1,476$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.32 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…dfebbacked Yes | 5c | 1,444$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9a…06bebacked Yes | 8c | 1,330$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4540…21e6backed Yes | 3c | 1,283$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed Yes | 3c | 1,221$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf865…d8b0backed Yes | 8c | 1,138$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.94 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b9…c2b6backed Yes | 3c | 1,032$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 1,016$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…97f1backed Yes | 8c | 1,012$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…7624backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22f…2702backed Yes | 5c | 966.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed Yes | 5c | 954.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 4c | 845$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 8c | 800$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 7c | 796.48$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…0ba9backed Yes | 4c | 792.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed49…5754backed Yes | 6c | 791.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc8…7dd1backed Yes | 3c | 783.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7596…4e5fbacked Yes | 5c | 778.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 8c | 699$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d8…fb38backed Yes | 2c | 678.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…74e8backed Yes | 8c | 629.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0b…c1a5backed Yes | 5c | 592.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3086…1982backed Yes | 6c | 567.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…0811backed Yes | 5c | 525.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb947…e35bbacked Yes | 3c | 515.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…0524backed Yes | 4c | 502.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac1…154bbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e6…f66ebacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d1…d1a7backed Yes | 4c | 492.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509c…e581backed Yes | 7c | 466.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc380…206ebacked Yes | 5c | 464.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 4c | 464$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 3c | 450$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 15c | 420$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa2…8ce1backed Yes | 5c | 414.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1f…320cbacked Yes | 8c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefea…62c3backed Yes | 4c | 399.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Yes | 7c | 382.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9d…1420backed Yes | 8c | 363.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ad…edeebacked Yes | 8c | 353.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c42…d89abacked Yes | 6c | 344.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…3fd0backed Yes | 6c | 314.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…79fcbacked Yes | 9c | 311.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f34…3bd9backed Yes | 8c | 305$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c1…0e98backed Yes | 7c | 299.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x568a…89b9backed Yes | 5c | 297.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bd…64dfbacked Yes | 10c | 257.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ce…53f1backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…5691backed Yes | 10c | 247.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d2…57b8backed Yes | 12c | 240$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 8c | 229$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb658…81f6backed Yes | 10c | 201$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b47…1cf9backed Yes | 5c | 199.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcda…571dbacked Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8898…7c59backed Yes | 8c | 132$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5460…afe8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CDU/CSU and Greens form the next German Government?this page
- Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?Yes won
- Will CDU/CSU, FDP, and Greens for the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and BSW form the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?No won
- Will SPD, FDP, and Greens form the next German Government?No won
- Will another coalition form the next German Government?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.