Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x458d2650b1e2c530c69b68a10f1cc5d8730627afcdc46660602d738ac2aff449

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 6, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $579,441
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $402,897

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $579,441 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x642c…cd5dbacked Yes	0c	39,008$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.02	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes	11c	25,918$2,808 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,808.23	55	21.8%12 W · 43 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes	0c	23,574$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.87	113	1.8%2 W · 111 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	+96.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes	0c	23,089$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.09	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes	7c	20,008$1,467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,466.8	121	33.1%40 W · 81 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes	9c	19,423$1,749 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,748.91	206	14.6%30 W · 176 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes	4c	13,998$533 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$533.39	190	27.9%53 W · 137 L	+14.5wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+53%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3371…5871backed Yes	3c	12,086$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$415.99	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-87.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xceac…aae9backed Yes	1c	11,943$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.18	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28ef…ffe1backed Yes	0c	11,757$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-76%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2997…ee2bbacked Yes	28c	11,592$3,255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,255	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa76b…97f1backed Yes	14c	10,159$1,422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,422.27	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-33%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	513	2.9%15 W · 498 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Yes	18c	8,636$1,586 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,586.4	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+1.8wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8fc…fa36backed Yes	46c	6,955$3,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,200	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.23per pick	38cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes	8c	6,681$568 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$567.56	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-56.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df2…a33abacked Yes	22c	6,466$1,451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,451.23	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…e4a7backed Yes	18c	6,096$1,067 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,067.48	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd907…e2febacked Yes	0c	5,213$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.16	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b70…b3b2backed Yes	5c	4,921$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.04	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes	18c	4,858$863 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$863.36	80	47.5%38 W · 42 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85de…ed2ebacked Yes	23c	4,249$996 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$996.45	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf728…2283backed Yes	9c	4,245$397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.56	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2607…8b73backed Yes	15c	3,548$516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515.74	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3c6…d8fabacked Yes	14c	3,254$471 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470.8	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec40…fce5backed Yes	40c	3,000$1,185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,185	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2038…6161backed Yes	39c	2,862$1,123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,123.17	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	13c	2,703$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.31	1,022	28%286 W · 736 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x098e…f289backed Yes	9c	2,670$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.24	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	33cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b72…8445backed Yes	9c	2,447$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.97	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed Yes	1c	2,430$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.75	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	31cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x999b…7e6bbacked Yes	20c	2,208$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$441.92	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc394…563abacked Yes	12c	2,167$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No	73c	2,160$1,580 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$579.4	99	42.4%42 W · 57 L	-11.0wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa17d…0d4ebacked Yes	12c	2,143$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-13%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1588…89febacked Yes	11c	2,061$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.16	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-53.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes	26c	2,000$523 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$523.37	100	37%37 W · 63 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1f…320cbacked Yes	5c	2,000$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.7	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5938…96e6backed Yes	11c	1,889$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91e1…1282backed Yes	18c	1,719$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.98	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-3.9wins	-0.14per pick	46cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed Yes	9c	1,658$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.27	73	31.5%23 W · 50 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes	9c	1,650$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.82	278	28.1%78 W · 200 L	-6.9wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb18…195bbacked Yes	16c	1,629$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.03	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4022…d049backed Yes	12c	1,613$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-67.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8f0…0446backed Yes	10c	1,578$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c8…6e68backed Yes	9c	1,466$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.57	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	10c	1,463$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.58	46	34.8%16 W · 30 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf709…8387backed Yes	29c	1,462$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.85	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes	9c	1,334$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.95	51	35.3%18 W · 33 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee26…1cfebacked Yes	19c	1,278$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.31	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No	80c	1,237$987 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$249.74	192	37.5%72 W · 120 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfeee…0aa1backed Yes	17c	1,231$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.94	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dd1…a343backed Yes	20c	1,218$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-51%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa842…e305backed Yes	17c	1,211$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x815b…5ef7backed Yes	21c	1,207$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.44	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	29cpaid	-77.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xebf6…5a07backed Yes	2c	1,200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	19c	1,158$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.76	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4253…8eebbacked Yes	18c	1,086$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.41	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.18per pick	42cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes	10c	1,041$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.54	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02e5…1ad6backed Yes	9c	1,007$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.45	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes	7c	1,000$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc160…ce0abacked No	80c	988.85$791 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.77	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-2.6wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-54%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Yes	21c	941.96$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.42	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0877…fa92backed Yes	21c	903.44$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.96	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	35cpaid	-71.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe8e…0045backed No	60c	886.06$530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$356.53	61	21.3%13 W · 48 L	+5.8wins	+0.09per pick	12cpaid	+164.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xefea…62c3backed Yes	13c	882.29$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.53	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6752…aa5bbacked Yes	12c	866.49$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.14per pick	27cpaid	-78.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ef…3d1ebacked Yes	11c	859.94$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.74	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x276e…49a1backed Yes	18c	847.07$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2755…5016backed Yes	20c	837.49$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.5	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	32cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f42…f065backed Yes	6c	800$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc354…de11backed No	78c	766.35$595 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171.15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.41per pick	75cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35f2…59e2backed Yes	10c	742.57$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x049b…0daabacked Yes	35c	717.88$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.26	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes	14c	678.27$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.88	152	37.5%57 W · 95 L	+8.0wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd061…d5e4backed Yes	3c	668.64$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.45	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-61%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8181…8b39backed Yes	16c	637.51$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.92	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.2wins	-0.37per pick	54cpaid	-72.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7554…38e2backed Yes	20c	624.29$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.79	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f57…e8b4backed No	70c	623.75$434 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$189.96	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	70cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9729…4541backed Yes	12c	592$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.67	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d2…57b8backed Yes	9c	585.99$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.74	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4e2…1546backed Yes	46c	578.97$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.59	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-2.4wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6994…6bb9backed No	80c	561.43$449 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.39	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90fa…b1b3backed Yes	23c	544.77$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.38	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8cd…996bbacked Yes	8c	529.75$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.31	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7769…e4a8backed Yes	10c	505.08$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48d8…0379backed Yes	19c	500$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.98	78	17.9%14 W · 64 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes	7c	499.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	63	28.6%18 W · 45 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d13…a018backed Yes	20c	499.73$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.32	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes	16c	495.99$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.56	62	24.2%15 W · 47 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…6ba5backed Yes	10c	483.18$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.68	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4028…d87abacked Yes	10c	480.77$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.5wins	+0.25per pick	25cpaid	+66%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b83…905ebacked Yes	21c	478.85$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes	9c	471.81$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.3	125	6.4%8 W · 117 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3be2…76debacked Yes	11c	470.88$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes	16c	465.66$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.8	100	14%14 W · 86 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2161…285fbacked Yes	17c	425.37$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.44	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	40cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfab9…60b2backed Yes	12c	425$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.03	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-2.6wins	-0.14per pick	31cpaid	-69.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4403…e414backed No	58c	413.34$239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.56	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.42per pick	58cpaid	+73.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

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Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government?this page
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government?No won
Will CDU/CSU and Greens form the next German Government?No won
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?Yes won
Will CDU/CSU, FDP, and Greens for the next German Government?No won
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and BSW form the next German Government?No won
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?No won
Will SPD, FDP, and Greens form the next German Government?No won
Will another coalition form the next German Government?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

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