World Politics · resolved market
Will CDU/CSU, FDP, and Greens for the next German Government?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46d975573ed55ae965abbe2c5e469dc1de1b47e5e65e6fe40b3be2373ef7296d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $479,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $268,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $479,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9056…df79backed Yes | 1c | 70,133$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 46,439$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.3 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 1c | 33,858$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.42 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28d…1fb7backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 18,473$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.09 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa363…62f5backed Yes | 2c | 13,524$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -82%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 11,949$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.28 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 1c | 11,556$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…1cfebacked Yes | 2c | 10,610$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.22 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc469…8bd4backed Yes | 2c | 6,626$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 2c | 5,974$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.65 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1588…89febacked Yes | 3c | 5,132$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…97f1backed Yes | 3c | 5,048$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.44 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 1c | 4,150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…c3dcbacked Yes | 2c | 3,010$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…1ca9backed Yes | 2c | 3,001$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,872$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7596…4e5fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,525$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a2…d376backed Yes | 2c | 2,404$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…b5a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 2,359$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…b412backed Yes | 1c | 2,224$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac1…154bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734f…b3b7backed Yes | 1c | 1,998$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…dfebbacked Yes | 2c | 1,605$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…87a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,363$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked Yes | 2c | 945.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Yes | 2c | 938.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefea…62c3backed Yes | 1c | 916$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed Yes | 2c | 890.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 2c | 606.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 2c | 597.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Yes | 4c | 540.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 2c | 526.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…a018backed Yes | 5c | 500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 3c | 450.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CDU/CSU, FDP, and Greens for the next German Government?this page
- Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU and Greens form the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?Yes won
- Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and BSW form the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?No won
- Will SPD, FDP, and Greens form the next German Government?No won
- Will another coalition form the next German Government?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.