World Politics · resolved market
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and BSW form the next German Government?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3aeb2e9ec69a0d5638e91175027a462b48623aca0c31cde6f696ba1a1043263a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $998,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $595,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $998,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd228…997bbacked Yes | 0c | 70,126$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…4912backed Yes | 0c | 45,003$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 1c | 41,866$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.55 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 39,601$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.88 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcee5…73c6backed Yes | 0c | 39,023$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9056…df79backed Yes | 1c | 30,245$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd28d…1fb7backed Yes | 1c | 27,789$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.26 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 26,757$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.28 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad14…ce36backed Yes | 1c | 22,221$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 2c | 17,296$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 17,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceac…aae9backed Yes | 1c | 14,100$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c82…e59cbacked Yes | 0c | 12,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d8…3befbacked Yes | 0c | 12,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc1…9cc1backed Yes | 2c | 7,046$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 1c | 6,123$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e10…9b8bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,755$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.46 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 2c | 4,334$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 3,819$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c6…d8fabacked Yes | 2c | 3,573$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd450…fb53backed Yes | 2c | 3,370$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed Yes | 1c | 2,364$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…e0d6backed Yes | 2c | 2,292$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1588…89febacked Yes | 4c | 2,194$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 3c | 2,008$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f5…2bfbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,933$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…7624backed Yes | 4c | 1,703$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 3c | 1,608$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7056…d493backed Yes | 2c | 1,577$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…f95dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,525$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -76%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,457$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8b…facdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,336$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…c0a6backed Yes | 3c | 1,126$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…93f7backed Yes | 2c | 1,091$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…97f1backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d3…0dfabacked Yes | 3c | 821.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 4c | 630$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 5c | 606.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9a…06bebacked Yes | 3c | 512.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…a018backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 3c | 451.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…1853backed Yes | 4c | 436.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 3c | 424.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 3c | 356.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2353…6a76backed Yes | 8c | 126.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and BSW form the next German Government?this page
- Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU and Greens form the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?Yes won
- Will CDU/CSU, FDP, and Greens for the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?No won
- Will SPD, FDP, and Greens form the next German Government?No won
- Will another coalition form the next German Government?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.