TailMyPicks
Market

Premier League · resolved market

Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$158,793
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$192,630

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,793 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xae36…8fb5backed Yes77c32,440$24,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,449.583537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb54b…e482backed Yes52c20,600$10,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,888540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x571c…c16abacked Yes52c19,231$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,230.7710848.1%52 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,80022744.5%101 W · 126 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37d8…b6ddbacked No52c9,615$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00011548.7%56 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked No48c9,417$4,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,520.0317958.1%104 W · 75 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No48c7,109$3,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,392.9379639.6%315 W · 481 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No48c6,100$2,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,927.9730851.3%158 W · 150 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed No53c5,505$2,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,895.984252.4%22 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed No48c4,600$2,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,207.9956453.9%304 W · 260 L+27.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked No49c3,646$1,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,781.771,20450.7%610 W · 594 L+1.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed Yes50c3,000$1,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,510.8832158.9%189 W · 132 L+13.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3550…68b6backed No2c2,915$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.475413%7 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf195…a7c1backed Yes50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0003100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+104.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe97d…5e65backed No52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.96837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-48.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07dd…ed9dbacked No49c1,765$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86518433.7%62 W · 122 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3d…f7afbacked Yes52c1,500$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+25.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Yes77c1,111$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.5316851.2%86 W · 82 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0ff…ca90backed No50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50021353.1%113 W · 100 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd3d…742fbacked Yes50c966$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48318929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6df…d469backed Yes52c905.77$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbec2…10dabacked Yes50c820.1$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.1580%4 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.46per pick34cpaid+151.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Yes51c800$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39237054.9%203 W · 167 L+15.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Yes64c775.54$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.2520744%91 W · 116 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1e84…7040backed Yes49c750.61$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.29977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.32per pick46cpaid+77.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed No59c745.73$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.828045%36 W · 44 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54f2…d0e3backed Yes50c732.3$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.33450%17 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ab…eb07backed Yes61c727.83$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.24333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed No53c702.28$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.212347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Yes50c674.88$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.0728355.5%157 W · 126 L+17.4wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f66…8938backed Yes45c664.46$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.465238.5%20 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Yes52c600.21$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.132037.2%119 W · 201 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Yes53c599.98$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.991747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc91a…c6b8backed Yes45c599.62$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.454843.8%21 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fa3…072dbacked Yes79c577.93$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.935558.2%32 W · 23 L+8.0wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9f9a…06d0backed Yes53c566.04$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.042965.5%19 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf092…4ebabacked Yes53c565.42$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.753351.5%17 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91e9…62c3backed Yes77c493.51$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6ac…957dbacked Yes50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2002055%11 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+38%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d6c…7b9abacked Yes53c390.21$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.49738.1%37 W · 60 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked No48c386$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.284035%14 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked No28c374.55$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0438645.3%175 W · 211 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Yes50c367.64$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.8221153.1%112 W · 99 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2798…3d88backed Yes43c350$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2009436.2%34 W · 60 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20c7…50c9backed Yes48c333.33$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.336939.1%27 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No5c297.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2966031.2%206 W · 454 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f1…bd6abacked No53c234.68$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.381250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8095…97b6backed Yes44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.27366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+65.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6245…d3c0backed No57c211.99$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.186248.4%30 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…6130backed No52c211.97$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.22771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+39.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdad8…6687backed Yes48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.33887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.32per pick56cpaid+73.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0829653%157 W · 139 L-23.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Yes49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.083240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x965e…0062backed Yes49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.081353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0842755%235 W · 192 L-23.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd483…756dbacked Yes49c202.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.791546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed No52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10414945%67 W · 82 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5be…7286backed No53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-50.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe10…95cbbacked Yes48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1041154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Yes50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10013552.6%71 W · 64 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb65d…3757backed Yes49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1022853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked Yes47c181.98$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.4517837.6%67 W · 111 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5902…59fabacked Yes73c181.28$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.954839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc674…5e6bbacked Yes77c180.52$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.52683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+41.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes49c180.03$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.9668942.2%291 W · 398 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4591…d19ebacked Yes51c176.47$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.4711252.7%59 W · 53 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes48c164.04$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.526327%17 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff8d…f0cebacked Yes50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed No49c148.5$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5718752.9%99 W · 88 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes70c140$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3528246.1%130 W · 152 L-12.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Yes78c124.37$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3639561.3%242 W · 153 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c14…0ea1backed Yes53c123.74$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.16650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x26ae…97b8backed No49c119$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8952060.4%314 W · 206 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78c2…8316backed Yes51c118.02$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.024854.2%26 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2ce…bca1backed Yes52c115.38$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.38977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+37%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2aea…afe5backed Yes52c115.38$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d5f…84bfbacked No48c110$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.812357.7%71 W · 52 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b4c…924cbacked Yes46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.71030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9e4…3d49backed Yes48c103.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.91425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99e6…da42backed Yes48c102.31$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+77.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.047061.4%43 W · 27 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf536…e40cbacked Yes49c101.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9617234.9%60 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5b84backed Yes49c101.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+43.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9725…853fbacked No53c100.15$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x984a…bb4abacked Yes48c100.02$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8773…302fbacked Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+16.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x46a6…8c21backed No47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3168…98c1backed Yes49c99.78$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.892100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+115.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf561…1ef1backed No53c99.6$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.79250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53be…c588backed No53c99.15$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c2…4c77backed Yes51c98.73$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01b9…8fabbacked Yes49c98.14$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.052100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd010…21a4backed No53c96.75$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5400…ae81backed No52c95.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7090…9470backed No53c95.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe947…2cf3backed Yes53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3410154.5%55 W · 46 L-9.6wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-17.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf3d4…9751backed Yes49c93.94$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0524…b443backed Yes49c93.65$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aab…a3ecbacked No52c93.21$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4730%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb47f…d5d0backed No52c93$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.36425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.