Premier League · resolved market
Will Arsenal vs. Newcastle end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b0dae56d22e1025578a23a58441b0f439d69c79b520e932da980dc68d4d52da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e11…9bacbacked Yes | 28c | 54,232$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,000 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 72c | 20,777$14,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,867.4 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 73c | 20,000$14,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,400 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Yes | 37c | 17,566$6,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,500 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae36…8fb5backed No | 63c | 16,113$10,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,961.74 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…ed07backed Yes | 26c | 9,998$2,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,599.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe08…4318backed No | 74c | 9,997$7,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,599.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 72c | 8,053$5,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,254.7 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 75c | 3,789$2,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.83 | 207 | 44%91 W · 116 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7b…1476backed Yes | 26c | 2,931$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.05 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5171…51e6backed Yes | 25c | 2,750$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be3…07f3backed No | 75c | 2,750$2,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 69c | 2,238$1,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.12 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 414 | 37.9%157 W · 257 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d9…227fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,322$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e0…68a8backed Yes | 32c | 1,042$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.46 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 75c | 780$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked No | 74c | 699.98$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 63c | 596.67$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.77 | 213 | 53.1%113 W · 100 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 6c | 555$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 270 | 24.8%67 W · 203 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 28c | 535.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes | 26c | 500$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed No | 74c | 499$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…e43fbacked Yes | 26c | 392.31$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 72c | 382.49$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 187 | 52.9%99 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 28c | 287.68$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes | 26c | 283.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 73c | 280.15$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.64 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…bdbdbacked Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Yes | 27c | 260$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 73c | 203$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Yes | 34c | 179.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 74c | 155$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20e…022bbacked Yes | 34c | 148.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 282 | 46.1%130 W · 152 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…748bbacked Yes | 26c | 103$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf76…5381backed No | 74c | 103$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1e…49d9backed Yes | 26c | 102.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…7d49backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd025…1c54backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14be…e4bfbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc190…b3aebacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…cc7bbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754f…4e38backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b8…2d83backed Yes | 37c | 99.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba6…09eabacked Yes | 27c | 96.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 28c | 82.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x082b…5e67backed No | 79c | 81.82$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…667abacked No | 75c | 73.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…c4bdbacked Yes | 26c | 73.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e70…718dbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 75c | 53.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 154 | 61%94 W · 60 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…4acebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 45%63 W · 77 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed No | 76c | 49.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 252 | 56%141 W · 111 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked Yes | 22c | 48.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 78c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 168 | 51.2%86 W · 82 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…b594backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…db98backed Yes | 30c | 41.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d42…787fbacked No | 70c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 76cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal vs. Newcastle end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-18?Yes won
- Will Newcastle win on 2025-05-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.