Premier League · resolved market
Will Southampton vs. Manchester City end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa12589614020570265e6842001b47338a5fd37f8f3e3960e5f433c7eb263ebbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 36c | 12,774$4,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,543.28 | 207 | 44%91 W · 116 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188d…6583backed Yes | 13c | 10,000$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,700 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.55per pick | 11cpaid | +394.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…bf65backed Yes | 12c | 9,999$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,799.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3550…68b6backed No | 5c | 7,058$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.69 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…3b96backed Yes | 33c | 5,746$1,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,850.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 68c | 5,601$3,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,830.87 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Yes | 46c | 3,538$1,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,912.35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed Yes | 69c | 3,380$2,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.7 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…c6b8backed No | 46c | 2,624$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.3 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…26ecbacked Yes | 12c | 1,900$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,672 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +172%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…8938backed Yes | 44c | 1,645$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.41 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Yes | 75c | 1,600$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3def…08b4backed Yes | 59c | 1,278$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.33 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Yes | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…c3acbacked Yes | 72c | 1,042$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae36…8fb5backed No | 53c | 1,031$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.63 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce5…7c13backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +259.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed Yes | 12c | 800$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Yes | 48c | 700$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 75c | 687.49$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.54 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 55c | 605.45$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.45 | 141 | 56.7%80 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8687backed Yes | 30c | 514.03$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…72f7backed Yes | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Yes | 55c | 349.85$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.43 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…e40cbacked Yes | 12c | 328.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.9 | 172 | 34.9%60 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa124…4891backed Yes | 11c | 263.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.12 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b83…f984backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…af8cbacked Yes | 15c | 183.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.72 | 88 | 25%22 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 71c | 180$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 187 | 52.9%99 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 65c | 174.61$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Yes | 12c | 166$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed5…e9bfbacked Yes | 61c | 163.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked Yes | 13c | 158.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.06 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.85 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed No | 50c | 145.08$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a3…6ed8backed Yes | 16c | 125.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.63 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…8aa5backed Yes | 11c | 115.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…42bfbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…1dd2backed Yes | 11c | 97.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.66 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +7.7wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 38c | 87.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Yes | 79c | 85.37$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x670c…d5fabacked Yes | 32c | 68.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 76c | 65.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd7b…ea70backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e1…d30abacked Yes | 52c | 32.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…425ebacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ae…ac55backed Yes | 72c | 22.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Southampton vs. Manchester City end in a draw?this page
- Will Manchester City win on 2025-05-10?No won
- Will Southampton win on 2025-05-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.