Premier League · resolved market
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Leicester end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeda9b194ed0f69bc4980bb169a889571156586a25b4cf7e41b653f02c29f1450
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $178,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $192,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4f6…bc99backed Yes | 19c | 138,000$26,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111,780 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e1…fcf9backed Yes | 19c | 9,999$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,099.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 68c | 5,357$3,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,665.88 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…97e8backed Yes | 20c | 5,019$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,019.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +151%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 29c | 4,274$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230.55 | 207 | 44%91 W · 116 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 72c | 1,603$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.8 | 414 | 37.9%157 W · 257 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Yes | 72c | 1,587$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.42 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Yes | 21c | 1,190$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.48 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 77c | 1,123$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.35 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed No | 79c | 1,108$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.25 | 214 | 45.8%98 W · 116 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3550…68b6backed No | 2c | 825.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed Yes | 18c | 547.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.2 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 70c | 477.16$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.16 | 141 | 56.7%80 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…8938backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Yes | 70c | 254.29$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.29 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…c1cebacked Yes | 75c | 202.18$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…fa0dbacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 32c | 179.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 187 | 52.9%99 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe71c…dcecbacked Yes | 73c | 116.88$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…fcd9backed Yes | 20c | 100.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +150.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc236…fa9fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.67 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9968…a104backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Yes | 73c | 59.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9366…3b90backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265d…5329backed No | 69c | 31.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…425ebacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…8c99backed Yes | 59c | 26.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47aa…09e9backed Yes | 73c | 21.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…4359backed Yes | 78c | 14.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nottingham Forest vs. Leicester end in a draw?this page
- Will Leicester win on 2025-05-11?No won
- Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-05-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.