Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-03-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b6062c5febea6c3963d6355678c3004dad0151b169c7f362dbf4a17cb78bba0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 7c | 7,513$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 24c | 6,076$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.52 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked No | 77c | 5,716$4,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332.85 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 77c | 5,400$4,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.24 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bf45backed Yes | 23c | 5,353$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Yes | 38c | 2,979$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.64 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde1…187fbacked No | 79c | 2,940$2,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0560…d77dbacked Yes | 21c | 2,877$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…b6ddbacked Yes | 22c | 2,286$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -61%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…b64dbacked Yes | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…acb6backed No | 79c | 1,921$1,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.79 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb826…8d67backed Yes | 22c | 1,364$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 59c | 1,233$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.58 | 122 | 43.4%53 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…c769backed Yes | 56c | 778.31$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 20c | 717.2$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.44 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd296…5febbacked Yes | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 67c | 575.37$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.3 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c20…2256backed No | 79c | 560.76$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 20c | 501.12$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.95 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 24c | 420$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 76c | 350.45$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.11 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Yes | 21c | 346$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.66 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 77c | 323.71$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.47 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…b9dcbacked Yes | 21c | 318.68$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 20c | 300$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3550…68b6backed No | 41c | 278.31$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 20c | 262.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 140 | 42.1%59 W · 81 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e5…c63abacked Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dae…0240backed Yes | 23c | 217.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07b…a738backed Yes | 19c | 209.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfead…893ebacked Yes | 23c | 195.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 78c | 178.21$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 77c | 141.86$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…5845backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 24c | 130.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked No | 78c | 115.19$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a5…5b4dbacked Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0f…addabacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10ae…cb95backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce86…f868backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf088…9a61backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d3…5ea8backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf061…2572backed Yes | 23c | 78.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed No | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cb…c3c8backed Yes | 22c | 67.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…c93bbacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6173…4258backed Yes | 21c | 62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e8…895bbacked Yes | 24c | 54.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a1…ad7bbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a05…7afdbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 77c | 43.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 76c | 41.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 75 | 66.7%50 W · 25 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…7036backed Yes | 50c | 40.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 77c | 30.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…5ddcbacked No | 79c | 21.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 77c | 16.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-03-13?this page
- Will Manchester United vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw?No won
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.