Tennis · resolved market
US Open: De Minaur vs. Draper
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57cbffe0384e17a212b0a9e8dcfc150a290fcbceb9d4f9b455a39b5bb6cb9dcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Draperof De Minaur, Draper
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $231,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $249,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f47…af93backed De Minaur | 20c | 103,465$20,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,216.83 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Draper | 63c | 16,876$10,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,174.63 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked De Minaur | 25c | 14,013$3,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,536.16 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked De Minaur | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…7407backed Draper | 60c | 7,999$4,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,178.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e00…14ecbacked Draper | 78c | 7,034$5,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed De Minaur | 53c | 4,974$2,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,652.39 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked De Minaur | 37c | 4,074$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488.48 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Draper | 47c | 3,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.87 | 103 | 18.4%19 W · 84 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Draper | 78c | 2,532$1,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.55 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb109…6b87backed De Minaur | 55c | 2,326$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Draper | 45c | 2,160$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked De Minaur | 54c | 2,100$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.26 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed De Minaur | 25c | 1,986$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed De Minaur | 43c | 1,654$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.76 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…e05cbacked De Minaur | 28c | 1,570$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3550…68b6backed De Minaur | 26c | 1,537$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +274.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed De Minaur | 27c | 1,150$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked De Minaur | 53c | 1,013$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed De Minaur | 32c | 895$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.2 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed De Minaur | 53c | 837.85$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.06 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e7…6c5cbacked De Minaur | 54c | 739.48$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed De Minaur | 5c | 700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21e7…5e93backed De Minaur | 56c | 621.74$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…c3abbacked De Minaur | 54c | 553.12$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Draper | 77c | 515.69$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.26 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63e0…0a56backed De Minaur | 41c | 500$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed De Minaur | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed De Minaur | 53c | 486.18$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…63abbacked De Minaur | 58c | 444.82$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed De Minaur | 57c | 382.32$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.92 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c46…202dbacked Draper | 47c | 306.38$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4398…9116backed De Minaur | 54c | 306.26$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed De Minaur | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…9047backed De Minaur | 21c | 266.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Draper | 49c | 255$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25d0…a114backed De Minaur | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked De Minaur | 57c | 235$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.95 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…fb64backed De Minaur | 56c | 228.26$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x463c…7d78backed Draper | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3575…4f23backed Draper | 60c | 190$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed De Minaur | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…af0dbacked De Minaur | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked De Minaur | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed Draper | 67c | 125.96$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0232…9391backed De Minaur | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…b987backed De Minaur | 49c | 119.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…7b00backed Draper | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x002e…ab83backed Draper | 52c | 64.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…fbe9backed De Minaur | 57c | 63.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb160…0978backed De Minaur | 53c | 61.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3807…f292backed Draper | 75c | 57.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed De Minaur | 20c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…5308backed Draper | 79c | 52.82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Draper | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…d146backed De Minaur | 58c | 48.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa58…030bbacked Draper | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…d35ebacked De Minaur | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f6…265fbacked De Minaur | 54c | 39.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9504…01ebbacked Draper | 47c | 36.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…b346backed De Minaur | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe680…296abacked De Minaur | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Draper | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Draper | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee2c…55cfbacked Draper | 80c | 16.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.