Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon: Fognini vs. Alcaraz
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd89964635ad04237f7b2592d6be0fb2dc1fa239a0bc12efa9dac0c0e9c56693e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Fognini, Alcaraz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $191,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $203,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed Fognini | 9c | 38,658$3,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,478.34 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Fognini | 4c | 14,342$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.81 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3550…68b6backed Fognini | 10c | 10,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +274.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4f…00d8backed Fognini | 21c | 9,390$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Fognini | 11c | 7,903$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.84 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Fognini | 6c | 5,000$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.55 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Fognini | 2c | 3,750$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.04 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Fognini | 2c | 2,864$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Fognini | 20c | 2,626$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.67 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb72…8b01backed Alcaraz | 78c | 2,600$2,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.22 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -52%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7a…6f28backed Alcaraz | 79c | 2,360$1,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.6 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Fognini | 6c | 2,342$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.76 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Fognini | 3c | 2,279$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3503…b8babacked Fognini | 20c | 2,102$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.25 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Fognini | 7c | 2,064$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.56 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee7d…4eebbacked Fognini | 10c | 2,054$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.16 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a5…3d26backed Fognini | 5c | 2,001$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Fognini | 2c | 1,795$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Fognini | 5c | 1,640$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976c…62b8backed Fognini | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…a496backed Fognini | 5c | 1,500$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Fognini | 3c | 1,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Fognini | 13c | 1,495$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Fognini | 5c | 1,486$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Fognini | 7c | 1,158$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…dcb9backed Fognini | 24c | 1,134$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…7564backed Fognini | 4c | 1,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Fognini | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a6…1198backed Fognini | 7c | 833.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Fognini | 10c | 827.42$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.31 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Alcaraz | 80c | 818.66$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.85 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Fognini | 10c | 809$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.72 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Fognini | 9c | 720.53$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…1887backed Fognini | 4c | 607.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Fognini | 2c | 561$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21cd…e7aabacked Fognini | 2c | 530.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Fognini | 19c | 503.44$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.14 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c80…a608backed Fognini | 16c | 473.84$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…6939backed Fognini | 5c | 413.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b8…87c1backed Fognini | 20c | 381.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Fognini | 6c | 350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…9a74backed Fognini | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…38adbacked Fognini | 9c | 284.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…96d6backed Fognini | 20c | 271.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Fognini | 21c | 266.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x502f…d624backed Fognini | 22c | 231.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…4392backed Fognini | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Fognini | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0043…f183backed Fognini | 17c | 178.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +219.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x697b…0d4ebacked Fognini | 12c | 166.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Fognini | 12c | 156$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 267 | 46.1%123 W · 144 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e1…9c10backed Fognini | 16c | 125.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9c…0fe6backed Fognini | 10c | 112.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Fognini | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Fognini | 24c | 83.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Alcaraz | 77c | 81.61$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…f39bbacked Fognini | 14c | 71.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Alcaraz | 79c | 66.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Alcaraz | 79c | 20.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.