Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon: Norrie vs. Alcaraz
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d78a669c2f8ada4ea1f4088718b74ded8bf99caec2ca996e39d1dcc8ee685cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcaraz of Norrie , Alcaraz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $450,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $439,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $450,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81f9…7dd4backed Norrie | 7c | 141,297$9,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,675.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Norrie | 9c | 98,271$8,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,436.76 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Norrie | 7c | 21,095$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.73 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Norrie | 1c | 16,609$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.97 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22e…f52cbacked Norrie | 9c | 11,100$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.01 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Norrie | 7c | 10,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Norrie | 7c | 10,000$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.76 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Norrie | 3c | 9,395$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.71 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb575…2090backed Norrie | 3c | 8,500$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Norrie | 7c | 7,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c2…d478backed Norrie | 8c | 6,300$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…c51cbacked Norrie | 5c | 5,545$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed Norrie | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8462…aca3backed Norrie | 4c | 3,243$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…d744backed Norrie | 1c | 2,600$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Norrie | 6c | 2,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…a496backed Norrie | 9c | 2,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Norrie | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…b0f5backed Norrie | 3c | 1,875$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Norrie | 7c | 1,809$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.07 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Norrie | 6c | 1,586$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Norrie | 1c | 1,513$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Norrie | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Norrie | 7c | 1,428$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98be…b7cabacked Norrie | 3c | 1,419$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 12cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Norrie | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Norrie | 8c | 1,204$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.41 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Norrie | 8c | 1,172$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.21 | 129 | 49.6%64 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fa…8135backed Norrie | 9c | 1,124$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Norrie | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Norrie | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 285 | 43.5%124 W · 161 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed Norrie | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Norrie | 10c | 907.69$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcd…d75bbacked Norrie | 12c | 880.31$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.34 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Norrie | 12c | 837.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Norrie | 9c | 644.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Norrie | 10c | 579.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…9f26backed Norrie | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c480backed Norrie | 6c | 535.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…60e0backed Norrie | 4c | 509.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…6df7backed Norrie | 3c | 499.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Norrie | 8c | 496.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…5105backed Norrie | 8c | 474$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Norrie | 8c | 450$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a9…4ea4backed Norrie | 5c | 450$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…fd58backed Norrie | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -65%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d22…302abacked Norrie | 8c | 392.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1123…0d76backed Norrie | 4c | 379.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91db…9b6ebacked Norrie | 9c | 370$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Norrie | 9c | 357.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…040ebacked Norrie | 7c | 333$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944d…d633backed Norrie | 8c | 320$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Norrie | 7c | 300.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Norrie | 6c | 274.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355a…98a6backed Norrie | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 188 | 39.9%75 W · 113 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…482fbacked Norrie | 9c | 230$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…0e92backed Norrie | 9c | 225.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Norrie | 5c | 218.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Norrie | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…c1b8backed Norrie | 10c | 206.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…6cdbbacked Norrie | 9c | 202.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Norrie | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Norrie | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Norrie | 7c | 142.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48d…44fabacked Norrie | 7c | 142.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…6116backed Norrie | 8c | 140.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7732…fa11backed Norrie | 9c | 129.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Norrie | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4439…9c3cbacked Norrie | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…3a28backed Norrie | 13c | 86.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.