Tennis · resolved market

ATP Toronto – Nakashima vs. Shelton

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46b3e03840385ad261937b75e1b130e713b7593da89a60603b20937cb4a2c739

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Shelton of Nakashima, Shelton
Resolved: Aug 2, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $96,338
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $99,819

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,338 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5ef4…412cbacked Nakashima	31c	15,925$4,920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,920.25	44	36.4%16 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	+4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fdb…7ea3backed Shelton	70c	14,871$10,434 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,436.97	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf22e…f52cbacked Nakashima	30c	6,987$2,096 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,095.98	55	25.5%14 W · 41 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Nakashima	26c	6,876$1,804 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,804.18	178	33.1%59 W · 119 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Shelton	64c	5,984$3,815 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,168.63	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-3.0wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Shelton	72c	5,466$3,946 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,519.12	101	38.6%39 W · 62 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Shelton	69c	5,428$3,728 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,700.34	1,852	44.5%825 W · 1,027 L	-20.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Nakashima	33c	5,258$1,731 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,730.95	91	30.8%28 W · 63 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Shelton	72c	5,001$3,588 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,412.54	1,107	42.8%474 W · 633 L	-20.0wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Shelton	72c	4,865$3,503 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,362.2	674	49.6%334 W · 340 L	-11.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Nakashima	28c	3,451$966 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$966.28	627	42.4%266 W · 361 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Nakashima	34c	3,354$1,128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,127.74	321	41.1%132 W · 189 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Shelton	58c	2,438$1,424 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,014.44	138	44.2%61 W · 77 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Shelton	69c	2,235$1,553 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$681.84	951	40.1%381 W · 570 L	+29.7wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Shelton	53c	1,887$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$886.79	488	51.6%252 W · 236 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Nakashima	29c	1,583$459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$458.96	96	52.1%50 W · 46 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Shelton	71c	1,522$1,084 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$438.58	159	61%97 W · 62 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	63cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8406…0176backed Shelton	69c	1,434$990 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$443.43	106	54.7%58 W · 48 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Nakashima	32c	1,283$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.93	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Nakashima	33c	1,108$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370.48	819	38.9%319 W · 500 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Nakashima	29c	1,071$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.62	770	46.9%361 W · 409 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0709…f2edbacked Shelton	70c	1,068$752 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$315.94	84	53.6%45 W · 39 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b7…6d97backed Nakashima	31c	911$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.93	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Nakashima	31c	899.99$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279	296	36.8%109 W · 187 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaca…49e6backed Shelton	72c	831.51$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$231.51	68	35.3%24 W · 44 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Shelton	60c	816.67$492 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$324.67	183	38.8%71 W · 112 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Shelton	71c	800$568 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$232	116	52.6%61 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda10…ffeabacked Shelton	71c	705.63$501 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.63	49	61.2%30 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5df4…342cbacked Shelton	66c	700$462 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$238	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b5a…7618backed Nakashima	26c	692$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.16	253	30%76 W · 177 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Shelton	67c	606.62$407 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200.03	154	52.6%81 W · 73 L	+10.8wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Nakashima	31c	579$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.49	528	44.7%236 W · 292 L	+30.8wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Shelton	77c	475$366 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109	629	52.1%328 W · 301 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f47…120dbacked Shelton	45c	450$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$247.5	51	58.8%30 W · 21 L	+3.2wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Nakashima	30c	446.29$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.89	391	44.2%173 W · 218 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Nakashima	30c	435.14$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.19	11,779	43.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L	+20.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-20%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Shelton	67c	398.51$268 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.51	1,056	55.4%585 W · 471 L	-22.8wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Shelton	74c	362$269 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.41	439	48.5%213 W · 226 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Shelton	70c	345.36$242 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.06	91	49.5%45 W · 46 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Shelton	58c	345.32$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145.32	731	47.9%350 W · 381 L	-16.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nakashima	33c	303.03$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	480	43.3%208 W · 272 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Nakashima	33c	303.03$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	639	42.4%271 W · 368 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xddbc…28c3backed Shelton	72c	300$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84	169	60.9%103 W · 66 L	-10.9wins	-0.06per pick	67cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x27a9…8781backed Shelton	71c	281.69$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.69	154	39.6%61 W · 93 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Nakashima	30c	257.14$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.14	253	42.7%108 W · 145 L	+8.2wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Nakashima	30c	254.42$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.49	204	31.4%64 W · 140 L	+7.7wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e79…42e0backed Shelton	71c	214.57$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.68	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e42…b020backed Shelton	68c	210$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80e9…5105backed Nakashima	30c	200$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8af…4900backed Nakashima	30c	180$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.2	173	49.1%85 W · 88 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95de…42d5backed Shelton	70c	172.53$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.46	12	83.3%10 W · 2 L	+1.8wins	+0.15per pick	68cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed Shelton	72c	159.72$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.72	383	56.9%218 W · 165 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eac…e064backed Nakashima	33c	151.52$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Shelton	66c	149.26$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.75	1,090	35.9%391 W · 699 L	+16.2wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x69cd…06f3backed Shelton	70c	142.86$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.86	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe64f…5976backed Shelton	71c	140.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.85	149	40.9%61 W · 88 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x731b…bdcabacked Shelton	71c	140.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.85	28	71.4%20 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	71cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f01…4ca2backed Shelton	75c	140$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.4	109	56.9%62 W · 47 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd90…f217backed Shelton	70c	114.29$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.29	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.29per pick	69cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf744…7392backed Shelton	59c	111.01$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.01	122	53.3%65 W · 57 L	-6.9wins	-0.06per pick	59cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed Shelton	72c	100$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3823…2784backed Shelton	70c	92.86$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.86	321	61.7%198 W · 123 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	63cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Nakashima	30c	88.91$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.66	161	40.4%65 W · 96 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Shelton	71c	82.62$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.96	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+2.1wins	+0.11per pick	42cpaid	-9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9ca…198bbacked Shelton	70c	71.43$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.43	54	59.3%32 W · 22 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	62cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Shelton	70c	71.43$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.43	2,348	46.5%1,092 W · 1,256 L	+54.5wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff9…e494backed Shelton	71c	58.58$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.99	360	40%144 W · 216 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5cb…64e0backed Nakashima	33c	57.59$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.07	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.15per pick	51cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Nakashima	30c	57$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.1	1,489	32.6%486 W · 1,003 L	+22.2wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3ad…2582backed Shelton	71c	56.34$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.34	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+41.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ca8…3e59backed Shelton	73c	54.79$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.79	51	58.8%30 W · 21 L	+3.4wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f4d…6be0backed Shelton	69c	50$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.5	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7be1…200ebacked Shelton	70c	48.57$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.57	251	52.6%132 W · 119 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c59…b8e9backed Nakashima	33c	45.45$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.18per pick	32cpaid	-58%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02d6…796dbacked Nakashima	31c	35.55$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.02	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Nakashima	46c	24$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.03	267	46.1%123 W · 144 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06c6…4162backed Shelton	71c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.8	51	41.2%21 W · 30 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-18%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

ATP Toronto – Nakashima vs. Shelton

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market