Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump try to fire Powell by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf22cd39376bfff2626e282ae41b82b2dd569530ec6c2734965c07bd785ae5c36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $268,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $231,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $268,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 1c | 45,584$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.71 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x611c…c982backed Yes | 5c | 27,923$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.8 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 1c | 19,697$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.71 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 4c | 14,095$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.5 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 11,381$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…c36fbacked Yes | 4c | 7,782$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 1c | 4,999$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 4c | 4,410$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4746…9a30backed Yes | 1c | 3,607$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 1c | 2,959$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 5c | 2,700$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,700$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -86%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 4c | 2,374$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.07 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 2,264$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x319c…6ccebacked Yes | 1c | 2,132$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f1…8dd4backed Yes | 1c | 2,119$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 1c | 2,101$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 2c | 2,065$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 1c | 2,037$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4489…2452backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe20…2042backed Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 6c | 1,559$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f65…9524backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 4c | 1,442$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437a…2948backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 3c | 1,087$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf74…2cefbacked Yes | 7c | 842.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c52…1303backed Yes | 4c | 801.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 2c | 700$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 680$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf013…e1cfbacked Yes | 5c | 570.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked Yes | 6c | 524.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…8677backed Yes | 3c | 500.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 7c | 399.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 4c | 370.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b1…e4efbacked Yes | 7c | 335$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…624abacked Yes | 4c | 324.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…a167backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eda…0e71backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9d…4929backed Yes | 8c | 247.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c31…6d35backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.