Tennis · resolved market
ATP Toronto – Marozsan vs. Auger Aliassime
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d8f2908c8a31d06e55a7f9ae44fdf54d16d5114c70aaf82f375b163c74a2058
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marozsanof Marozsan, Aliassime
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Aliassime | 19c | 12,802$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380.25 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Marozsan | 67c | 7,998$5,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,639.2 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Aliassime | 62c | 6,496$4,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,020.83 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653c…506cbacked Marozsan | 69c | 3,200$2,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…18debacked Marozsan | 44c | 3,200$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,794 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Aliassime | 30c | 2,709$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.78 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…a496backed Aliassime | 60c | 2,500$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…cb71backed Marozsan | 40c | 1,378$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.05 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Aliassime | 47c | 1,065$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…5cb9backed Aliassime | 16c | 900$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Marozsan | 39c | 853.85$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.85 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Marozsan | 71c | 800$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Marozsan | 38c | 599$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.63 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.2wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +2,177.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Marozsan | 40c | 533.35$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.01 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Aliassime | 48c | 492.17$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.09 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Aliassime | 78c | 437.15$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.98 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cb…64e0backed Marozsan | 57c | 347.5$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Aliassime | 62c | 290$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.8 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Marozsan | 33c | 285$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Marozsan | 38c | 163.34$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.27 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Aliassime | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…624abacked Marozsan | 40c | 137.03$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.53 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Marozsan | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Aliassime | 62c | 99.84$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ca…198bbacked Aliassime | 76c | 85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0667…42e1backed Marozsan | 39c | 70.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Aliassime | 62c | 66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…f88dbacked Marozsan | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Marozsan | 37c | 43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Aliassime | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaece…c992backed Marozsan | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Aliassime | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 70.8%167 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d6…796dbacked Marozsan | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.