Tennis · resolved market
ATP Toronto – Fils vs. Carreno Busta
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4b387b70cabc940d3f256c453cfc834517d9a91fe63e324bf1e02e4613878a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fils of Fils , Carreno Busta
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Carreno Busta | 24c | 1,363$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.32 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a3…7cbfbacked Fils | 72c | 772.88$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.67 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Carreno Busta | 28c | 759.16$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.97 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Carreno Busta | 10c | 577.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ffeabacked Fils | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Fils | 69c | 322$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.82 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Carreno Busta | 31c | 322$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…e5f7backed Fils | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Carreno Busta | 31c | 209.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Fils | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…58dbbacked Fils | 72c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…cb71backed Fils | 73c | 152.18$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Fils | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Fils | 67c | 105.19$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…3b1fbacked Fils | 73c | 101.81$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Fils | 73c | 91.3$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…35dcbacked Fils | 70c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Carreno Busta | 29c | 70.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Fils | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cb…3485backed Carreno Busta | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 306 | 39.9%122 W · 184 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e79…42e0backed Fils | 73c | 60.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Carreno Busta | 27c | 59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cb…64e0backed Fils | 73c | 30.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…624abacked Fils | 73c | 24.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Fils | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 236 | 70.8%167 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaece…c992backed Fils | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.