TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia by September 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$181,377
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$182,346

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,377 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5095…c97cbacked No40c16,910$6,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,750.94852.1%25 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x036e…9276backed Yes51c9,635$4,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,721.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf639…d967backed No9c7,926$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7506650%33 W · 33 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c12…7a2fbacked No2c6,118$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df4…3dc7backed Yes44c6,038$2,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,372.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+126.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes77c4,800$3,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.614553.3%24 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-20%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes76c3,340$2,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.05850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+46.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8eac…3600backed No42c3,295$1,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,382.023933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf00a…c77cbacked No23c3,223$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.053863.2%24 W · 14 L+5.8wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+28.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x712f…b93bbacked No23c3,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6902142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No57c2,941$1,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,689.361369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No5c2,600$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142905.6%5 W · 85 L+0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-82.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0103…067bbacked Yes55c2,395$1,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,078.782365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes51c2,279$1,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.362334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No49c2,232$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.781060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No31c2,181$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.7312547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c2,100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1614920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0141…fe13backed No1c2,080$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.97520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-61.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8365…e9a6backed No46c2,000$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.74837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee6…4050backed No30c1,956$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.922227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-42.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45c8…f309backed No1c1,947$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.49185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-91.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes74c1,900$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.072119%4 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-59%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf08…b700backed No1c1,773$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-57.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x11e0…7cd5backed No38c1,500$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.99540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed No7c1,478$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.093630.6%11 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72e7…3a9bbacked Yes74c1,428$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked No28c1,231$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.88045%36 W · 44 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No28c1,207$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.379037.8%34 W · 56 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5113…e446backed Yes62c1,189$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.22450%12 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x069f…b749backed Yes47c1,145$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.182744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x588c…1bf4backed No26c1,100$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.943762.2%23 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed Yes76c1,088$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.332744.4%12 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe10b…5fe3backed No26c1,051$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.332454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fcb…c875backed No29c1,050$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked Yes79c1,013$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.663354.5%18 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60d6…af98backed No15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b8…c770backed No18c984.99$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.313132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-19.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes63c964.89$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.913231.3%10 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-40.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No20c922.73$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.281118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-70.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes77c894.81$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.264443.2%19 W · 25 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes66c873.36$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.0935341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No3c853.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.376336.5%23 W · 40 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x825e…904fbacked Yes70c822.35$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.232259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7079…a828backed Yes61c814.1$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.21020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-71.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ae…2631backed No23c800$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.23425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a97…24dabacked Yes69c722.82$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.23666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x415a…d1e2backed Yes77c702.37$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.05425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-67.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99d5…e8c9backed No38c701.28$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.631637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ad…b2d3backed No24c700$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1691747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d8…0a63backed Yes75c689.23$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.16666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed No31c641.23$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.435036%18 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes71c622.77$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.377844.9%35 W · 43 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ca7…6149backed Yes73c600$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.552560%15 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+20.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed No48c548.06$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.4210357.3%59 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504348.8%21 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0db7…c901backed Yes73c500$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed No45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2253342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b87…e76dbacked No21c500$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1041546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed Yes79c452.57$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.935479.6%43 W · 11 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked No8c425.58$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.036317.5%11 W · 52 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7d03…4cb7backed No25c412.4$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No51c412.23$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.4226835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No14c404.03$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.674037.5%15 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-33.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8d8…747cbacked No25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed Yes56c399.98$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.993652.8%19 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf652…56afbacked No59c399.98$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.991030%3 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-52.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No35c399.97$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9911530.4%35 W · 80 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No24c387.34$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.968247.6%39 W · 43 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes71c351.57$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.38944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick25cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xef71…704fbacked No60c350$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.59450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc550…272dbacked No35c350$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.51250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaefb…11afbacked No51c347.56$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No32c345.71$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.4225528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdacb…af2bbacked No32c344.67$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa244…8e63backed No24c333.01$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.781546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+73.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed No44c333$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.522857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ef…5289backed No41c330.06$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1351723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.1wins-0.24per pick47cpaid-53.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8637…9657backed Yes76c329$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.96540%2 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick73cpaid-47%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8083…4a0bbacked No40c326.67$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed Yes70c326.46$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.947356.2%41 W · 32 L+14.4wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+58.6%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No44c326.19$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.6341736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x874e…03b1backed No10c304.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302025%5 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-47.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0815…d0ddbacked Yes79c303$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.13757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+52.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb277…d809backed Yes52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1441030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked No39c300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1174850%24 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa70…8f17backed No42c300$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1272268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e5f…9d60backed Yes73c300$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37ef…a37abacked Yes52c277.41$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.161827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-52.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No22c271.41$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0317122.2%38 W · 133 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x57e7…b491backed Yes58c270$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.2966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23be…da4fbacked Yes56c267.86$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.86812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-77.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4141…8b6cbacked No34c265.23$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed No32c264$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.288936%32 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No21c263$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3720026%52 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x736b…3b87backed No28c250.36$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507250%36 W · 36 L+10.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+25.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked Yes80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e5…f82ebacked Yes66c248.35$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.384358.1%25 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x741d…e35cbacked Yes54c242.31$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.313148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes62c241.41$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.855850%29 W · 29 L+6.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+23.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.