Middle East · resolved market
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x056f58e7b2c247281c3a4aaa1b3ed4d42490adc1bdf8bc97e1e475cf0a3bd8b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 75c | 26,261$19,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,567.71 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 25c | 25,000$6,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,250 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 16c | 3,010$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 10c | 2,101$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.22 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989f…4673backed Yes | 3c | 1,887$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…9d86backed Yes | 4c | 1,353$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 1,346$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf210…e8bdbacked Yes | 24c | 1,080$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 8c | 1,061$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.81 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,026$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 3c | 998.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 5c | 911.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…c23bbacked Yes | 3c | 714.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…af2fbacked Yes | 12c | 647.97$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes | 2c | 587$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe36d…290ebacked Yes | 3c | 516.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes | 4c | 503$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b06…39f3backed Yes | 3c | 479.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed Yes | 3c | 478$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes | 3c | 474$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6e…d3c9backed Yes | 3c | 439.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 16c | 431.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.81 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…06e5backed Yes | 3c | 389.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…c677backed Yes | 4c | 379.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked Yes | 4c | 354$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 3c | 343$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…b4a8backed Yes | 3c | 339.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecf9…94d7backed Yes | 3c | 334.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2435…8903backed Yes | 18c | 328$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x820c…7a8cbacked Yes | 19c | 315.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 17c | 300.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 5c | 288.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab5…3198backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 17c | 249.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f9…5b74backed Yes | 37c | 229.74$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed No | 62c | 209.07$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.26 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 15c | 205$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed Yes | 16c | 190$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…99b9backed Yes | 17c | 150.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62d4…cc28backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…03c7backed Yes | 14c | 117.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf52f…c3f1backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…624abacked Yes | 18c | 103.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…d06cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44cb…e3d8backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a8…4b54backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…676ebacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +87%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5a…1ca2backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +6.5wins | +0.23per pick | 38cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…9200backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.