Tennis · resolved market
ATP Toronto – Tien vs. Opelka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bead2023f59b8c39be7722d42fad02fd3e7b45d8bb1a1db6f8d4451be044a82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tienof Tien, Opelka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ef4…412cbacked Opelka | 47c | 23,615$11,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,008.27 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Tien | 53c | 15,558$8,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,319.37 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Tien | 56c | 4,972$2,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,187.8 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Tien | 54c | 3,446$1,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,568.35 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd9…544abacked Opelka | 45c | 2,874$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 201 | 55.7%112 W · 89 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Tien | 52c | 2,050$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.98 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Tien | 57c | 1,710$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.42 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Tien | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Opelka | 43c | 1,500$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Tien | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.87 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Opelka | 52c | 1,343$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Opelka | 44c | 1,291$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.39 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653c…506cbacked Opelka | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Tien | 57c | 1,149$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.19 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Tien | 58c | 1,075$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.36 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Opelka | 46c | 999.99$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Tien | 55c | 999.99$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked Opelka | 43c | 999.99$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Opelka | 43c | 999.99$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Tien | 54c | 983.79$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.54 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Tien | 54c | 972$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.12 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69cd…06f3backed Tien | 57c | 961.89$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.89 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Tien | 54c | 895$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.75 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…6133backed Opelka | 45c | 699.98$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.99 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Opelka | 46c | 649.98$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.99 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Tien | 52c | 600$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Tien | 58c | 472.9$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.9 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Tien | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…1ca9backed Tien | 54c | 392.15$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.16 | 153 | 63.4%97 W · 56 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Tien | 66c | 391.58$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.98 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Tien | 55c | 362.53$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df4…5161backed Tien | 54c | 350$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…cb71backed Opelka | 47c | 343.01$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.01 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Tien | 57c | 340.88$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.68 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…a9dabacked Opelka | 12c | 325$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +256.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Tien | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Tien | 53c | 299.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Tien | 58c | 242.26$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.75 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tien | 72c | 240$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.02 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Opelka | 34c | 226.59$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Opelka | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Opelka | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Opelka | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Opelka | 46c | 207.8$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77ff…0a9ebacked Opelka | 46c | 198$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…120dbacked Tien | 57c | 182.37$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.49 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Tien | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cb…64e0backed Opelka | 47c | 178.32$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.03 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…4aa8backed Opelka | 46c | 152$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e79…42e0backed Opelka | 47c | 141.31$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.73 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35a…2157backed Opelka | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Tien | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…624abacked Opelka | 47c | 119.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed Opelka | 45c | 110.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Tien | 56c | 102.3$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Tien | 54c | 101.61$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 236 | 70.8%167 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Tien | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2dc…5ac3backed Opelka | 46c | 66.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Opelka | 47c | 65.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a33…83abbacked Opelka | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3021…f925backed Opelka | 47c | 61.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f7…facbbacked Tien | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…f88dbacked Opelka | 49c | 58.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58e…3af7backed Tien | 66c | 57.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Opelka | 46c | 56.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Opelka | 28c | 54.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…6be0backed Tien | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Tien | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Tien | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c44…6ecebacked Tien | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Opelka | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Tien | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaece…c992backed Opelka | 46c | 35.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61d…8bd0backed Opelka | 47c | 29.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0667…42e1backed Opelka | 47c | 29.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…3ce7backed Tien | 54c | 26.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…3b1fbacked Opelka | 47c | 21.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Tien | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.