Lol · resolved market
League of Legends: T1 vs. Nongshim Red Force
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3547f330a7cfc4f6a54256efc8d54ac3c176ed7c5cb337f0398a60b3b187535
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- T1of T1, Nongshim
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $581,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $685,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $581,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked Nongshim | 20c | 403,520$78,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78,941.37 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -13.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed T1 | 79c | 164,346$130,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,190.41 | 364 | 33.8%123 W · 241 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…005fbacked T1 | 79c | 39,064$30,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,108.46 | 94 | 66%62 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nongshim | 17c | 13,490$2,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,301.24 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed T1 | 79c | 10,960$8,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,302.08 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed T1 | 78c | 8,893$6,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,956.35 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…831abacked Nongshim | 19c | 5,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Nongshim | 18c | 2,917$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.99 | 435 | 39.5%172 W · 263 L | -24.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked T1 | 79c | 2,207$1,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.55 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed T1 | 76c | 2,171$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.05 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Nongshim | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 354 | 31.1%110 W · 244 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked Nongshim | 14c | 1,999$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.84 | 91 | 27.5%25 W · 66 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Nongshim | 23c | 1,982$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.4 | 1,598 | 42.4%677 W · 921 L | -17.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed T1 | 78c | 1,500$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 1,180 | 44.5%525 W · 655 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429d…39a7backed Nongshim | 4c | 1,406$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.77 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8aa…0ae3backed T1 | 79c | 1,291$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.01 | 444 | 70%311 W · 133 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed T1 | 78c | 1,022$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.91 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed T1 | 78c | 1,005$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.13 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed T1 | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 130 | 63.8%83 W · 47 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…63c2backed Nongshim | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…e7b1backed T1 | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 87 | 69%60 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ec…3f30backed Nongshim | 5c | 975.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1138…158fbacked Nongshim | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…7fb4backed Nongshim | 21c | 700$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 242 | 40.9%99 W · 143 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c3…1f5fbacked T1 | 79c | 650$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 796 | 53.1%423 W · 373 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x432d…bda6backed Nongshim | 19c | 634.12$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Nongshim | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed T1 | 77c | 540.01$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.52 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Nongshim | 19c | 532.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 194 | 51%99 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x532f…83ccbacked Nongshim | 11c | 501$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked T1 | 79c | 450$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 177 | 55.9%99 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Nongshim | 14c | 438$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…c21ebacked Nongshim | 22c | 349.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked T1 | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,356 | 51.1%693 W · 663 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…1f26backed T1 | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb153…d8b5backed T1 | 79c | 272.41$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked T1 | 78c | 267.59$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 181 | 65.7%119 W · 62 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed T1 | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…624abacked T1 | 79c | 250.89$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed T1 | 77c | 175$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02c…2cf8backed T1 | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed T1 | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,136 | 63.1%717 W · 419 L | +51.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…a26ebacked Nongshim | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 363 | 31.1%113 W · 250 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd971…4471backed T1 | 78c | 111.54$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked T1 | 77c | 111.53$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked T1 | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 924 | 50.9%470 W · 454 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked T1 | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 163 | 42.9%70 W · 93 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Nongshim | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8997…c11abacked T1 | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…58dbbacked T1 | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed T1 | 79c | 91.14$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed Nongshim | 18c | 84.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d1…b785backed T1 | 76c | 78.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…8732backed T1 | 79c | 78.48$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…d442backed Nongshim | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb4…da3cbacked T1 | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nongshim | 22c | 64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 441 | 28.1%124 W · 317 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a4…fbc3backed T1 | 78c | 56.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Nongshim | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,098 | 34.8%382 W · 716 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked T1 | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…f95ebacked Nongshim | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x979f…d84ebacked T1 | 79c | 47.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d97…3f76backed T1 | 79c | 46.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…7d67backed T1 | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0df3…f15abacked T1 | 79c | 37.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…8d1bbacked T1 | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed T1 | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc69d…ac68backed T1 | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e49…9714backed T1 | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…3ab9backed T1 | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 211 | 46%97 W · 114 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…e1cdbacked T1 | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked T1 | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…216cbacked T1 | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7f…2f8cbacked T1 | 79c | 13.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked T1 | 80c | 13.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.7 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.