Tennis · resolved market
ATP Toronto – Zverev vs. Arnaldi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25f0586463855fa6f60b855e4190057d5294634ae20234932259f7678079f60d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zverevof Zverev, Arnaldi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ef4…412cbacked Arnaldi | 29c | 34,000$9,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,860 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Zverev | 71c | 14,986$10,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,345.86 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Zverev | 70c | 14,279$9,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,283.85 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Zverev | 70c | 4,957$3,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,481.32 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Zverev | 71c | 4,602$3,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.53 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Arnaldi | 32c | 3,072$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.34 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Zverev | 68c | 3,056$2,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.89 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Zverev | 72c | 2,785$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.16 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Zverev | 70c | 2,594$1,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.69 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Zverev | 65c | 2,120$1,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.48 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x653c…506cbacked Zverev | 63c | 1,343$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Arnaldi | 20c | 1,007$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.28 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Zverev | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +9.1wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +2,130.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…a496backed Arnaldi | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked Arnaldi | 19c | 999.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Zverev | 80c | 972.5$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Zverev | 78c | 931.37$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.9 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Zverev | 80c | 904.76$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Arnaldi | 23c | 797.65$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.55 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5861…66efbacked Zverev | 71c | 666$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Arnaldi | 19c | 581.17$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.61 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Zverev | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc567…04bfbacked Arnaldi | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Arnaldi | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Arnaldi | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Arnaldi | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0667…42e1backed Zverev | 74c | 346.72$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.15 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Zverev | 76c | 256.25$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Zverev | 68c | 250$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Arnaldi | 19c | 247.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Arnaldi | 21c | 204.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…120dbacked Zverev | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…5105backed Arnaldi | 19c | 199.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cb…64e0backed Zverev | 75c | 198$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Zverev | 68c | 160.61$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…dde4backed Arnaldi | 35c | 155.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…624abacked Zverev | 74c | 133.92$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Zverev | 79c | 128.06$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d17…b1fdbacked Zverev | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Arnaldi | 20c | 113.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Arnaldi | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arnaldi | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11,779 | 43.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L | +20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…98c3backed Zverev | 49c | 80.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Arnaldi | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Arnaldi | 28c | 70.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked Zverev | 74c | 63.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaece…c992backed Zverev | 69c | 51.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Zverev | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae90…c05fbacked Zverev | 74c | 39.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Zverev | 68c | 28.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Arnaldi | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…8f9abacked Zverev | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…1ca9backed Zverev | 63c | 23.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 153 | 63.4%97 W · 56 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02d6…796dbacked Zverev | 75c | 14.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932c…b1fdbacked Zverev | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.