Music · resolved market
The Life of a Showgirl Parlay
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe62b1f1f3c86642373ad4915019f775cdd8eb1f7414eff8e6c645b7b114ea1e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 0c | 7,050$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 12c | 3,446$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.66 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 9c | 1,554$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.86 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…cbf8backed No | 78c | 665.75$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…715fbacked No | 75c | 367.47$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 300.98$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.24 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 35c | 201.09$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 58c | 198.15$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 33c | 141.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Yes | 18c | 136.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 96.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 26c | 82.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d53…9eadbacked No | 79c | 54.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b27…736cbacked No | 79c | 50.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 79c | 50.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 66c | 15.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.