Music · resolved market
Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 7 straight weeks?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9838eea1f40bf6520c91bbd684a566720f43a23bc102051ef9debbd8206053a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,128$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 54c | 1,700$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.49 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,596$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.82 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c40…4caebacked No | 3c | 1,309$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed No | 3c | 800.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…fbf4backed No | 3c | 501.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed No | 25c | 381.82$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.59 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +225.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 13c | 298.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 10c | 259.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3b…9240backed No | 50c | 250.83$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…fb6abacked No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab0…1b0bbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.54per pick | 26cpaid | +383%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed No | 9c | 190$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0821…e433backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 40c | 180.73$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.77 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e8…8d93backed Yes | 16c | 175$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…4d16backed No | 59c | 169.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 59c | 148.65$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.65 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 15c | 110.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked No | 60c | 98.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…648ebacked No | 58c | 93.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 22c | 83.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 49.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 60c | 42.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc7…31c0backed No | 27c | 40.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 7 straight weeks?this page
- Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 0 straight weeks?No won
- Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 1 straight week?No won
- Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 10 straight weeks?No won
- Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 11 straight weeks?No won
- Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 12 straight weeks?No won
- Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 13 straight weeks?No won
- Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 18 straight weeks?No won
- Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 19 straight weeks?No won
- Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 2 straight weeks?No won
- Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 20 or more straight weeks?No won
- Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 3 straight weeks?No won
- Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 4 straight weeks?No won
- Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 5 straight weeks?No won
- Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 6 straight weeks?No won
- Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 8 straight weeks?No won
- Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 9 straight weeks?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.