TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Music · resolved market

Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 6 straight weeks?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,088
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,822

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,088 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes8c867.5$71 inLost-$71.26139.3%24 W · 37 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c681.19$21 inLost-$20.74629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd570…b90abacked Yes42c678.95$286 inLost-$286.11747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes4c640.72$25 inLost-$25.14378.1%3 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c471.01$30 inLost-$30.2824732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes8c335.71$25 inLost-$25.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x562b…dc09backed Yes12c271.82$33 inLost-$32.643751.4%19 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+37.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0821…e433backed Yes7c201.78$15 inLost-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes12c168.39$20 inLost-$19.547222.2%16 W · 56 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-35.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes15c161.81$25 inLost-$24.7514938.9%58 W · 91 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes11c104$12 inLost-$11.9523040%92 W · 138 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbae0…5cd6backed Yes25c92.6$23 inLost-$23.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No55c66.38$36 inWon+$29.915944.1%26 W · 33 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes18c64.83$12 inLost-$11.8839116.1%63 W · 328 L-44.4wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0952…a44bbacked Yes66c34.28$23 inLost-$22.731540%6 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd992…96c0backed No40c30$12 inWon+$17.892100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+108.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.