TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Han Duck-soo in jail by August 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$426,742
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$408,667

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $426,742 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa7fa…16cbbacked Yes65c27,429$17,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,725.052744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1c…4d4dbacked Yes46c19,789$9,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,052.945750.9%29 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x761d…0687backed Yes13c19,618$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,600.022213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-58.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d73…bae7backed No76c15,947$12,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,815.092040%8 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeae7…1884backed No78c13,726$10,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,067.763040%12 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes0c13,572$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.573135.5%11 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-44.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0663…4a2bbacked Yes58c13,499$7,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,878.861833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7f1c…1cedbacked No32c10,972$3,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,490.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+57.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes12c8,778$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.6518216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed Yes39c8,570$3,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,358.53228.1%9 W · 23 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-49.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3372…1914backed Yes48c8,024$3,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,843.834938.8%19 W · 30 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a88…f866backed Yes44c7,506$3,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,269.797828.2%22 W · 56 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes11c6,744$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.856726.9%18 W · 49 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes0c6,486$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed No29c6,458$1,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,597.095339.6%21 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+31%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed No72c6,402$4,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,778.46238.7%24 W · 38 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+102.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x10c4…3a47backed No68c5,576$3,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,806.31540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-45.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7baf…57fdbacked Yes43c5,563$2,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,410.841050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes35c5,457$1,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,906.783912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+42.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No46c4,094$1,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,216.2827828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d65…16d4backed Yes37c4,021$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No29c3,948$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,786.95420.4%11 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5b3…4155backed No37c3,784$1,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,376.448341%34 W · 49 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c3,353$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.422939.2%27 W · 266 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f37…efcfbacked No54c3,342$1,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+83.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked No43c3,314$1,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,876.0713334.6%46 W · 87 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c3,309$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.611344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes26c3,251$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.715317%9 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x914a…361bbacked No73c3,129$2,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.7785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick74cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e98…ae0fbacked Yes46c2,963$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.412429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+67.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No70c2,814$1,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.5888448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5676…b103backed No64c2,810$1,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.7120538%78 W · 127 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d1…a8eebacked No25c2,764$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,064.33425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfe3…73c4backed No66c2,566$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.232552%13 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No41c2,472$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,456.0424736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed Yes4c2,465$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5355.7%2 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.13per pick19cpaid-88.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x60f7…050bbacked Yes60c2,320$1,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,386.773046.7%14 W · 16 L-5.4wins-0.18per pick65cpaid-29.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x653a…bb03backed No48c2,160$1,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.24633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f22…fdd3backed Yes30c1,666$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x201c…d383backed No59c1,648$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.432236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes5c1,625$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9717921.2%38 W · 141 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd303…9c76backed Yes41c1,590$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6542152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes57c1,499$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.914526.7%12 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75b1…e2e8backed No40c1,462$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.771844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+76.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c1,459$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.586883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…67fdbacked No54c1,419$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid+44.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01e7…89b4backed Yes35c1,417$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001625%4 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68dd…2fa4backed No71c1,417$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.542100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0beb…32f8backed No59c1,385$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.092100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+303.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2136…ee56backed No75c1,326$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1107…857cbacked No52c1,160$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.8540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x287a…9ee2backed No68c1,125$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.673959%23 W · 16 L+8.0wins+0.21per pick38cpaid+85.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x79fa…8a55backed Yes36c1,111$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.961850%9 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No71c1,109$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.671,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765b…1a00backed No65c1,100$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb4…a92abacked No64c1,086$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a9d…9de8backed No38c1,042$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.243821.1%8 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-17.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0db7…c901backed Yes64c1,039$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.7757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c37…92a4backed No68c1,019$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.895238.5%20 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3903132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11e0…7cd5backed No55c999.99$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No74c979.25$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.0238023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes21c938.65$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.648330.1%25 W · 58 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f0…fe05backed No41c918.09$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.675817.2%10 W · 48 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-43.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0554…da2abacked Yes51c901.63$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4601631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes13c900$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12016616.9%28 W · 138 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+111.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked Yes34c890.57$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.972638.5%10 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+143.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x190c…8cf4backed No23c854.7$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.7742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes8c800.21$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.417817.9%14 W · 64 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3504…3e45backed No26c770$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.81546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick30cpaid+44.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3fd2…9cccbacked Yes41c700$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed33…cdc9backed No59c700$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x454b…8bacbacked Yes20c700$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1432548%12 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c672$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.161,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked No52c660.3$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.823423.5%8 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-54.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x520d…babebacked Yes68c632.22$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.7830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d30…6ac3backed No54c600$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1707…93c4backed No70c600$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1783531.4%11 W · 24 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick42cpaid+3.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ae9…5f74backed No40c599.99$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3614729.8%14 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc22…8c12backed No54c552.11$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes18c519.14$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6256314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x34a9…9e88backed No71c503.13$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1461560%9 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+66.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x64e7…fc5bbacked Yes73c499.99$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.99520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-57.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes15c494$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.491546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No66c489.29$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.5313139.7%52 W · 79 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ac…85b4backed Yes13c487.87$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9c67…8b76backed Yes41c484$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No61c477.23$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.846950.7%35 W · 34 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e0e…fdb4backed No55c472.73$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.732100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+112.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes61c471.69$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.212580%20 W · 5 L+4.6wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+38.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6d74…09ffbacked No47c469.43$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-64.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed No54c466.59$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.592365.2%15 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No66c457.11$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.064045%18 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes56c450.8$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.253534.3%12 W · 23 L-8.2wins-0.23per pick58cpaid-46.9%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xdec2…b04abacked Yes45c439.69$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.862623.1%6 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-60.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes47c437.06$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.6457636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e91…42e5backed Yes5c428.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-32.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4f…d11fbacked No58c419.42$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.95650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a4f…829ebacked No23c411$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.461546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93b4…2486backed No49c407.93$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.154332.6%14 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.