World Politics · resolved market
Han Duck-soo in jail by August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88da7ecad59f7582f1c0faa7cf15bf16f3a808dd037e8a6d19a64a09c0f8d4d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $426,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $408,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $426,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7fa…16cbbacked Yes | 65c | 27,429$17,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,725.05 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…4d4dbacked Yes | 46c | 19,789$9,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,052.94 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x761d…0687backed Yes | 13c | 19,618$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600.02 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed No | 76c | 15,947$12,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,815.09 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae7…1884backed No | 78c | 13,726$10,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,067.76 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 0c | 13,572$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0663…4a2bbacked Yes | 58c | 13,499$7,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,878.86 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…1cedbacked No | 32c | 10,972$3,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,490.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 12c | 8,778$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.65 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 39c | 8,570$3,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,358.5 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Yes | 48c | 8,024$3,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,843.83 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f866backed Yes | 44c | 7,506$3,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,269.79 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes | 11c | 6,744$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.85 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 0c | 6,486$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 29c | 6,458$1,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,597.09 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +31%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed No | 72c | 6,402$4,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,778.4 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10c4…3a47backed No | 68c | 5,576$3,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,806.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…57fdbacked Yes | 43c | 5,563$2,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,410.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 35c | 5,457$1,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,906.78 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 46c | 4,094$1,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,216.28 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d65…16d4backed Yes | 37c | 4,021$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 29c | 3,948$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,786.9 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed No | 37c | 3,784$1,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,376.44 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 3,353$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…efcfbacked No | 54c | 3,342$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked No | 43c | 3,314$1,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,876.07 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 3,309$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 26c | 3,251$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.71 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…361bbacked No | 73c | 3,129$2,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e98…ae0fbacked Yes | 46c | 2,963$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.41 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 2,814$1,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.58 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed No | 64c | 2,810$1,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.71 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d1…a8eebacked No | 25c | 2,764$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,064.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 66c | 2,566$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.23 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 41c | 2,472$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.04 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 4c | 2,465$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…050bbacked Yes | 60c | 2,320$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.77 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -5.4wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x653a…bb03backed No | 48c | 2,160$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f22…fdd3backed Yes | 30c | 1,666$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…d383backed No | 59c | 1,648$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.43 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,625$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.97 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd303…9c76backed Yes | 41c | 1,590$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 57c | 1,499$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.91 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…e2e8backed No | 40c | 1,462$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.77 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 1,459$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…67fdbacked No | 54c | 1,419$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed Yes | 35c | 1,417$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…2fa4backed No | 71c | 1,417$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0beb…32f8backed No | 59c | 1,385$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +303.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2136…ee56backed No | 75c | 1,326$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1107…857cbacked No | 52c | 1,160$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x287a…9ee2backed No | 68c | 1,125$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.67 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +8.0wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x79fa…8a55backed Yes | 36c | 1,111$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.96 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 71c | 1,109$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.67 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…1a00backed No | 65c | 1,100$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb4…a92abacked No | 64c | 1,086$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed No | 38c | 1,042$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.24 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…c901backed Yes | 64c | 1,039$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed No | 68c | 1,019$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.89 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e0…7cd5backed No | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 74c | 979.25$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.02 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 21c | 938.65$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.64 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed No | 41c | 918.09$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0554…da2abacked Yes | 51c | 901.63$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 13c | 900$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked Yes | 34c | 890.57$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.97 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x190c…8cf4backed No | 23c | 854.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 8c | 800.21$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3504…3e45backed No | 26c | 770$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd2…9cccbacked Yes | 41c | 700$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed33…cdc9backed No | 59c | 700$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 20c | 700$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 672$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked No | 52c | 660.3$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.82 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 68c | 632.22$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d30…6ac3backed No | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1707…93c4backed No | 70c | 600$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…5f74backed No | 40c | 599.99$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…8c12backed No | 54c | 552.11$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 519.14$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed No | 71c | 503.13$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…fc5bbacked Yes | 73c | 499.99$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 15c | 494$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 66c | 489.29$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.53 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ac…85b4backed Yes | 13c | 487.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 41c | 484$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 61c | 477.23$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.84 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0e…fdb4backed No | 55c | 472.73$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes | 61c | 471.69$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.21 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d74…09ffbacked No | 47c | 469.43$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 54c | 466.59$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.59 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 66c | 457.11$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.06 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 56c | 450.8$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.25 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.2wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b04abacked Yes | 45c | 439.69$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.86 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 47c | 437.06$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.64 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e91…42e5backed Yes | 5c | 428.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4f…d11fbacked No | 58c | 419.42$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…829ebacked No | 23c | 411$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.46 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed No | 49c | 407.93$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.15 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.