Movies · resolved market
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1af0012d9cc00155745109c09b4d936ada46e4ab039c0d14545bea3c64687099
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x178c…5ac6backed No | 2c | 3,324$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 6c | 2,528$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.29 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 1c | 2,154$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca4b…1d01backed No | 1c | 1,900$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 52c | 1,782$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.6 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 62c | 1,099$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.14 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd30a…7621backed No | 3c | 1,066$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb704…dc1ebacked No | 2c | 982.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked No | 5c | 691.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 77c | 655.68$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.03 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 634.82$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 12c | 584.69$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked Yes | 20c | 555.8$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.65 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked No | 29c | 405$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.95 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…5e7bbacked Yes | 61c | 388$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.44 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed No | 12c | 364$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed No | 68c | 356.17$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.89 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 26c | 301.42$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8add…fc2abacked Yes | 26c | 294.92$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 48c | 261.39$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.89 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed No | 8c | 237.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 68c | 234.01$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.58 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed Yes | 68c | 226$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…75ebbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 77c | 190$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.8 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed No | 30c | 178$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 11c | 170.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 32c | 168$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…0430backed No | 10c | 152$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 13c | 150.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 31c | 140$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed Yes | 75c | 135$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed No | 34c | 130$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x667f…8c3ebacked No | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked No | 17c | 128$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 68c | 127$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 23c | 120$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.2 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 69c | 118.02$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 20c | 115$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 16c | 106.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 56c | 106.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed No | 52c | 104$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…b842backed No | 12c | 104$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…77febacked Yes | 77c | 103$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 70c | 100.03$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5240…89f4backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 95.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 33c | 95.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ee…421bbacked No | 66c | 92.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 54c | 84.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf298…12f8backed No | 23c | 83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked No | 23c | 77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed Yes | 47c | 76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd091…e046backed No | 53c | 76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…cb02backed Yes | 77c | 74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4974backed No | 35c | 66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 32c | 59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…8085backed No | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed No | 35c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed Yes | 75c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 58c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…1a93backed Yes | 75c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…88c8backed Yes | 68c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked Yes | 32c | 33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa71…9767backed Yes | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…13edbacked Yes | 71c | 30.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?this page
- Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Superman' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Zootopia 2' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.