Movies · resolved market
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7c798967b9d4d4443b07a673468c3661ccfce1f1c4cc8c3f876a8ab1cbc7024
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 2c | 3,756$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4463…f3d0backed Yes | 3c | 3,161$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked Yes | 4c | 3,140$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.84 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x178c…5ac6backed Yes | 2c | 1,403$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…9ea8backed Yes | 2c | 1,283$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 783.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…e185backed Yes | 1c | 719.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes | 11c | 594.67$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 15c | 558.3$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 4c | 528$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 5c | 500.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf111…2a81backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…75ebbacked Yes | 11c | 401.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe933…500bbacked Yes | 20c | 399.34$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 389.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed Yes | 6c | 364$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes | 6c | 355$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed Yes | 6c | 236$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…0430backed Yes | 7c | 233$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…7155backed Yes | 7c | 225.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…68b9backed Yes | 5c | 202$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…3c98backed Yes | 11c | 185.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f3…09e0backed Yes | 10c | 171$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…69cbbacked Yes | 7c | 170.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb53…0412backed Yes | 8c | 134.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 17c | 120.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 78c | 80.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?this page
- Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?Yes won
- Will 'Superman' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Zootopia 2' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.