Music · resolved market
Will Taylor Swift release a new original song by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x494d6aec1784c9c4f6a6cf0d1300c9a2a7840d61051fbdbb2a6d872940c6031e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb442…9b8ebacked Yes | 12c | 8,537$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9b…0054backed Yes | 8c | 7,528$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 8c | 4,744$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 10c | 2,043$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.17 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 10c | 1,979$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.41 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 8c | 1,750$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…28d9backed Yes | 10c | 1,418$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 8c | 1,120$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +196.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 1,040$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 1c | 1,005$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -71%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 844.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 11c | 722.86$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 691$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Yes | 14c | 680$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 38c | 632.61$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.54 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…7b2ebacked No | 63c | 499.99$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.99 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 7c | 479$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 11c | 477.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked Yes | 35c | 434.63$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 5c | 379.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Yes | 13c | 377.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 7c | 336.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…ed41backed Yes | 7c | 276.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…f91ebacked Yes | 38c | 199.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eef…65c2backed Yes | 43c | 149.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6fd8backed Yes | 37c | 139$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 11c | 135.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…766cbacked Yes | 9c | 112.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +959.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 13c | 105$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 17c | 98.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 37c | 78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…6ff5backed Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed Yes | 19c | 61.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…0920backed Yes | 17c | 59.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 64c | 58.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 49c | 25.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.