Music · resolved market
Taylor Swift on top two spots of Billboard Hot 100 for Oct 25th?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfde74f4e917ea8abd3133c471577dc323d7d367d7d39d1441e0177a5f8278ee1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 0c | 20,263$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 147 | 8.2%12 W · 135 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked No | 2c | 5,786$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6b…b1dbbacked No | 8c | 3,884$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.92 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…6569backed No | 1c | 3,444$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 74c | 3,183$2,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,351.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…eda0backed No | 2c | 2,852$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda2e…6c83backed No | 53c | 2,118$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe96…94d5backed Yes | 26c | 2,099$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c90…aa32backed Yes | 28c | 1,915$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,378.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 78c | 1,419$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 49c | 1,397$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c6…b9a7backed No | 1c | 1,349$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82c…620abacked Yes | 32c | 1,125$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e9…8b44backed Yes | 24c | 951.88$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d38…120abacked No | 1c | 917.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 26c | 718.99$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.48 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked No | 60c | 700.49$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…c2dabacked No | 2c | 646.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf3…d220backed No | 2c | 577.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 2c | 559.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 28c | 556$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.68 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed No | 62c | 486.06$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.42 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed No | 72c | 466.05$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.27 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…98c3backed Yes | 43c | 464.66$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 449.95$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.84 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…1822backed Yes | 30c | 415$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 32c | 400$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +210.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…ebaabacked Yes | 46c | 382.5$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…1d46backed Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 70c | 247.04$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed No | 68c | 244$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 26c | 228.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.41 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5d…0b1abacked Yes | 21c | 215.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 71c | 204.5$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…4b7abacked No | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 50c | 154.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.77 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 63c | 145$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd798…74e3backed No | 60c | 122.1$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…9177backed Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +425%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d0…79d1backed No | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…d611backed No | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5025…dd30backed Yes | 27c | 74.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 42c | 61.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b4…8376backed No | 65c | 56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 32c | 54.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 68c | 52.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 28c | 45.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 28c | 44.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a5…c32fbacked Yes | 37c | 43.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed No | 27c | 42.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed No | 29c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e81…78ffbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ba…5b15backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +257%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…549ebacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 58c | 30.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes | 72c | 29.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…fd27backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 65c | 25.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…eeb6backed Yes | 60c | 20.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…6f5bbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef0…fbbabacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…647fbacked Yes | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf99…ce6abacked No | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf58…d9bdbacked Yes | 58c | 18.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 71c | 15.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.