Music · resolved market
Will Drake's "Which One" debut at #1 in its first week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x838a284802020c37cf94f6e477638432b38457795614301f74ec86ad4f7cdc40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x281f…2e1abacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 12,223$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 0c | 9,945$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…19f5backed Yes | 0c | 7,426$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +124.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,330$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1f…8ff2backed Yes | 6c | 2,156$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…8569backed Yes | 5c | 1,685$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 4c | 817.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 623.52$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.17 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 56c | 566.99$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 61c | 494.48$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.34 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 31c | 382.57$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 4c | 376.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 33c | 366.34$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x452d…2804backed Yes | 5c | 323$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…1f26backed Yes | 69c | 290$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4b…8aa4backed No | 76c | 251.33$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…d22dbacked Yes | 17c | 246.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba64…3808backed Yes | 24c | 230.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked No | 69c | 216.64$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…f2d8backed No | 43c | 157.61$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfafb…27eabacked No | 64c | 156.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff48…7242backed Yes | 26c | 120.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4536…f54fbacked Yes | 69c | 116.26$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c1…6513backed Yes | 13c | 105.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 37c | 105.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 40c | 105.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.04 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +6.4wins | +0.29per pick | 26cpaid | +157.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 35c | 101.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…928fbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed No | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 62c | 99.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 61c | 97.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 63c | 94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…8d43backed No | 38c | 90$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 45c | 79.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66de…6ff4backed Yes | 67c | 74.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x586a…1cafbacked Yes | 36c | 69.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 63c | 63.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff1c…8cb6backed Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dee…8be9backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1579…9a89backed Yes | 44c | 56.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 46c | 53.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +75%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…4230backed No | 80c | 50.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2a…b7aebacked No | 60c | 49.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6c…33ebbacked Yes | 45c | 46.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdef…b15ebacked No | 66c | 40.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 29c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x995c…8770backed No | 72c | 29.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4e…6664backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x680e…10d0backed No | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 43c | 24.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e2…768dbacked Yes | 63c | 17.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.