TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Jafar Panahi be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,577
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,243

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,577 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 256 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3d77…abd5backed No19c5,263$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,263.042437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes72c1,527$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.2948236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7170…ed44backed No22c1,265$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.72152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed No30c1,258$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.9817821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No62c1,030$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.417125.4%18 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed Yes78c866$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.913438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x897a…b17ebacked Yes75c621.41$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.063339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No30c611.65$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.2113130.5%40 W · 91 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed No25c600$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4504650%23 W · 23 L+8.3wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+61.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2f68…21ecbacked No61c555$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.332832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-50.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes48c551$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.5713040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes58c542$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.882857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13b6…ba85backed No22c518$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.041450%7 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+48.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes38c505.15$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.728528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes65c503.58$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.8913740.1%55 W · 82 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x270e…2930backed No62c480.2$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.24829.2%14 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes58c462$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.1229926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x520d…babebacked Yes50c400.34$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.4511352.2%59 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No20c372.48$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.5514015%21 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7233…f0eabacked No25c362$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.52254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd137…ceacbacked Yes72c356.59$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.741833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-45.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed No25c351$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.253056.7%17 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c07…956bbacked No62c331$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.781030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-54.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4346…2241backed No28c324$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.283250%16 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8727…83d7backed Yes78c318$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.041145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f10…5ff3backed No22c315$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick24cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23c1…704bbacked Yes78c314$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.921250%6 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ed…28e1backed Yes39c307$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.731741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No24c302$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.2336538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa57…86f5backed No19c300.94$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.5450%2 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+406%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c58…6d8abacked No22c290$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40a2…84f1backed Yes74c290$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.521241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes75c286$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.53655.6%20 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x207b…7283backed Yes38c265.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.7wins-0.47per pick59cpaid-83.1%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x6891…1146backed Yes75c264$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1981931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa67…4585backed No23c257.3$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.941353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes54c254.68$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.36567.1%4 W · 52 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-79.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf23e…aec3backed Yes75c248$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1861338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick44cpaid+17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked Yes41c237$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.173951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff80…996bbacked No24c236$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e85…1f81backed No33c234.42$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.681225%3 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes38c223$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.742147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+64.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3a8…f1fdbacked No27c216$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x282e…3eaabacked No25c209$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.75757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+53.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x36bd…7469backed Yes80c208.51$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.79616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-75.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes42c204.73$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5333123.9%79 W · 252 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab72…b70dbacked Yes49c203.01$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002931%9 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes75c200$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15019836.4%72 W · 126 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc18…cb94backed Yes78c200$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ff…5e17backed No31c200$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.2475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+69%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No45c178.54$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.0820841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No30c174.58$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.611,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde48…52ecbacked No26c172$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1897…c285backed No58c172$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.521353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1351…4287backed Yes78c172$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62bd…6f58backed No22c168$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.043100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+186.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0e4…e711backed No25c167$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.252100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+182%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03a3…fdf4backed No59c165$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.652955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes49c163$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.223741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4924…f404backed Yes39c160$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.42045%9 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8178…d207backed No22c158$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+127.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes35c145.93$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.223636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d2…0b68backed No23c145$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d2b…fd2cbacked No27c145$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.852161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes41c144.09$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4834651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d67…4927backed Yes78c143$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9be1…cb56backed No25c142$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.52060%12 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+65%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1932…9254backed No21c140$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf25d…8b1ebacked No65c138$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.33745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes38c136.86$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0123130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bae…8200backed No25c136$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.9wins+0.30per pick39cpaid+120.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0b6f…6890backed No27c134$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.77742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd789…96e3backed Yes74c133$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x787a…a54dbacked Yes75c127$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.251915.8%3 W · 16 L-5.3wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-75.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe627…e145backed No53c125$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.75850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b65…56f4backed No22c125$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7086…f376backed Yes38c124$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.12955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba84…c25abacked No22c123$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa822…6585backed Yes78c121$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.021154.5%6 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick77cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No61c120.28$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.812923.3%30 W · 99 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-57.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x730f…680cbacked Yes76c120$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1832…98abbacked Yes73c118$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes79c113.71$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2813650%68 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x253f…e642backed No64c112$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.22437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf341…9f48backed No22c111$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.582100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+190.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c57…c2e0backed No28c108$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.762842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea45…e748backed No21c105.2$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.111936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb93b…912abacked No26c105$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf0…ad13backed No24c105$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39a9…d398backed No25c105$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes78c104$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.123246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed3b…e1dbbacked Yes76c104$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71f6…ea40backed Yes73c104$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.922744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x188a…de60backed Yes37c101.89$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.73411.8%4 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf8…1271backed Yes78c101$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d6d…c063backed No25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x293b…09a9backed No62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382055%11 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35b2…8abdbacked Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9e…5f7fbacked No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes71c99.82$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.679244.6%41 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.