Movies · resolved market

Will Chloé Zhao be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x777b4637013acfb1302fc20bd304c35fef92958046e3a0880ab64f6b69c1286d

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $112,425
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $121,543

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,425 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x69e7…d3b0backed No	26c	11,451$2,998 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,998.33	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No	24c	9,629$2,327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,326.91	299	26.4%79 W · 220 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x72a2…7b65backed Yes	77c	6,929$5,328 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,601.36	25	60%15 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	18c	6,917$1,219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,218.63	482	36.3%175 W · 307 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	75c	4,909$3,673 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,235.54	285	28.8%82 W · 203 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed No	22c	3,551$790 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$789.8	178	21.3%38 W · 140 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes	74c	3,394$2,527 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$867.46	71	25.4%18 W · 53 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No	15c	3,117$476 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$475.73	71	36.6%26 W · 45 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No	1c	3,019$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.19	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	+5.1wins	+0.20per pick	23cpaid	+335.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb86e…8cfdbacked Yes	65c	2,434$1,575 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$858.61	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-14%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	78c	2,291$1,783 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$508.33	365	38.1%139 W · 226 L	-19.8wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x225b…422abacked Yes	74c	2,000$1,485 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$515	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	34cpaid	-66.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6d3…ae43backed Yes	78c	1,779$1,388 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$391.42	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No	30c	1,763$536 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$535.76	56	7.1%4 W · 52 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed No	33c	1,756$578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$577.65	49	30.6%15 W · 34 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d77…abd5backed Yes	61c	1,649$1,002 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$647.24	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ff…9f4abacked Yes	68c	1,606$1,086 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$519.72	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-41.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No	18c	1,288$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.87	246	34.6%85 W · 161 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb338…1ff0backed Yes	79c	1,165$920 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.65	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd719…d8e5backed No	21c	1,126$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.49	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No	27c	1,117$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.16	131	30.5%40 W · 91 L	-7.2wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7cbc…5196backed No	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-5.1wins	-0.12per pick	25cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked No	24c	958.21$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.09	71	35.2%25 W · 46 L	+4.7wins	+0.07per pick	29cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes	74c	899.98$669 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$231	80	40%32 W · 48 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa63f…1da9backed Yes	75c	864.59$649 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$215.59	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+47.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed No	26c	844.98$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.88	40	30%12 W · 28 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+59.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29a9…d4f7backed Yes	79c	834$659 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175.14	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7f7…e73bbacked Yes	76c	820$620 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200.2	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-22%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf29…3f46backed Yes	79c	768.48$606 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.19	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-3.9wins	-0.18per pick	49cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbdaf…f63cbacked No	21c	725$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.25	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d5f6backed Yes	80c	723$578 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.6	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x809a…f315backed No	21c	630$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.91	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd502…4974backed No	21c	562$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.02	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5518…1211backed No	21c	557$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.97	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6499…05d2backed Yes	80c	539$431 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.8	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1930…691cbacked Yes	78c	515.18$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.18	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+2.5wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	79c	510$404 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.6	105	49.5%52 W · 53 L	+6.5wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7feb…6bc2backed Yes	80c	507$406 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.4	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4346…2241backed Yes	79c	464$367 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.44	32	50%16 W · 16 L	+2.3wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1294…9151backed No	20c	461$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.2	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	31cpaid	-52.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64c2…c527backed Yes	80c	461$369 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.2	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2247…96e8backed Yes	80c	461$369 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.2	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x299c…d85ebacked Yes	78c	456.66$358 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.56	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.15per pick	60cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No	10c	450.49$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.95	89	4.5%4 W · 85 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf58d…a617backed No	20c	433$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.6	20	55%11 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe136…cacebacked Yes	77c	426$328 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.98	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdce0…7260backed No	23c	426$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.98	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+2.5wins	+0.10per pick	36cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x548b…8390backed Yes	74c	415$309 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.4	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d17…1e5ebacked No	20c	410$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+3.7wins	+0.12per pick	45cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf7ef…79d6backed Yes	80c	410$328 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes	67c	401.77$269 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.17	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f29…0760backed Yes	69c	400$277 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123	25	48%12 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc895…9bfabacked No	21c	400$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.05	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-22%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x188a…de60backed No	18c	400$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ec…62aabacked No	20c	394$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.8	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes	78c	391.8$306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.54	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…ee5abacked No	21c	384$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.64	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	22c	367.95$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.32	484	14%68 W · 416 L	-39.3wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes	80c	327.38$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.96	136	50%68 W · 68 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6a…53e0backed Yes	79c	326$258 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.46	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+3.0wins	+0.13per pick	43cpaid	+32.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa53e…f9f6backed No	25c	313.36$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.18	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No	20c	304.18$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.59	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+2.9wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe419…5839backed No	38c	300$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7f2…1a94backed Yes	68c	300$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.9wins	+0.14per pick	43cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No	20c	299$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.8	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes	79c	298$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.58	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked No	24c	296.05$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.05	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.21per pick	54cpaid	+106.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes	79c	289$228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.69	24	66.7%16 W · 8 L	+4.4wins	+0.18per pick	48cpaid	+37.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes	67c	272.76$182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.82	67	29.9%20 W · 47 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-44%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe43…af79backed No	20c	270$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+51%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed No	20c	268$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.6	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	23c	264$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.89	130	40%52 W · 78 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes	80c	264$211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.8	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	+4.6wins	+0.15per pick	47cpaid	+30%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked No	20c	264$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.8	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	25c	257.99$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.54	1,218	17.8%217 W · 1,001 L	-124.0wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No	9c	250$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	278	1.8%5 W · 273 L	-9.2wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91be…2641backed Yes	79c	248$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.08	29	31%9 W · 20 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-38%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed No	23c	244$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.01	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7c2…fcbebacked Yes	80c	239$191 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.8	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.4wins	+0.14per pick	56cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53de…b486backed No	20c	237$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.4	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	45cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d75…78b9backed Yes	77c	231.12$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.12	29	79.3%23 W · 6 L	+5.9wins	+0.20per pick	59cpaid	+36.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdf52…b944backed No	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.17per pick	28cpaid	+56.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes	73c	211.06$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.27	206	68.9%142 W · 64 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	70cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x196d…a7efbacked No	36c	211$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No	17c	210$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.97	266	41.7%111 W · 155 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f4…0430backed Yes	79c	210$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.1	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	93	4.3%4 W · 89 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No	10c	200$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	204	2.9%6 W · 198 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes	77c	200$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	58	31%18 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked Yes	66c	199.95$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.98	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	+8.8wins	+0.13per pick	28cpaid	+68.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	33c	191.25$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.66	1,394	8%111 W · 1,283 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No	22c	161.61$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.92	346	51.2%177 W · 169 L	+17.0wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+10%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7227…3681backed Yes	69c	150$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No	9c	150$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	211	9.5%20 W · 191 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd940…8d04backed Yes	75c	150$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	55cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes	76c	148.79$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.99	143	37.1%53 W · 90 L	-10.4wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6b8…6f30backed No	24c	144.06$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.26	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed No	25c	140.61$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.9	40	55%22 W · 18 L	+4.6wins	+0.12per pick	43cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed No	11c	135.18$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.32	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x228a…7b36backed No	34c	134$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.56	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Chloé Zhao be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event