Movies · resolved market

Will Ryan Coogler be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9cb6a006dc19656ff2bbe65ddc306815de80c53bad077c455541ac506e6c16c

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $67,455
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $65,962

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,455 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xde04…fa37backed No	8c	10,949$902 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$902.2	299	26.4%79 W · 220 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	14c	2,740$397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.82	482	36.3%175 W · 307 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed No	6c	1,974$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.52	40	30%12 W · 28 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+59.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No	3c	1,682$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.42	89	4.5%4 W · 85 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No	4c	1,680$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.88	129	23.3%30 W · 99 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb13…a48abacked No	1c	1,331$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.63	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No	8c	1,142$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.28	246	34.6%85 W · 161 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	16c	1,055$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.45	130	40%52 W · 78 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0006…87b6backed No	4c	1,010$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked No	4c	970.99$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.56	71	35.2%25 W · 46 L	+4.7wins	+0.07per pick	29cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	76c	949.79$722 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228.12	62	29%18 W · 44 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8715…37f0backed No	1c	899$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.59	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27db…a440backed Yes	78c	767.63$602 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.2	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad7f…f819backed No	5c	758$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No	4c	755$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.07	194	40.2%78 W · 116 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafa3…c3ddbacked No	17c	646$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.82	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+1.7wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed No	4c	582.94$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.49	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dd…5514backed No	20c	524$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.8	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	40cpaid	-42%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x59a5…665ebacked No	4c	492$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.68	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	11c	467.25$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.54	1,394	8%111 W · 1,283 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No	4c	461.01$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.16	56	7.1%4 W · 52 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No	18c	458$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.71	71	36.6%26 W · 45 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No	6c	454.52$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.24	154	9.7%15 W · 139 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-30%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28c8…a94dbacked Yes	80c	433$346 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.6	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+52%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37ea…9d00backed No	4c	428$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No	18c	426.57$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.29	266	41.7%111 W · 155 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes	76c	384$290 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.5	131	35.1%46 W · 85 L	-14.0wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb132…6943backed Yes	68c	377$256 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.64	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6512…87e5backed No	3c	363.63$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.18	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed No	14c	360.83$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	157	39.5%62 W · 95 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf06d…db77backed No	32c	355$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.6	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.26per pick	46cpaid	-72.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1832…af9ebacked No	17c	342$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.14	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-21%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed No	26c	329.16$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.58	178	21.3%38 W · 140 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8476backed No	5c	320.45$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.43	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No	6c	299.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.3	90	1.1%1 W · 89 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	6cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes	69c	289.31$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.31	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	+50%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7775…6cb4backed Yes	68c	274$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.68	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+2.0wins	+0.12per pick	47cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x89df…f8d0backed No	19c	268.69$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	22	50%11 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5bcb…f59bbacked No	18c	262$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.96	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked No	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	-4.9wins	-0.10per pick	16cpaid	-84%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd44…f151backed No	6c	245.97$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	78	39.7%31 W · 47 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb407…a978backed No	17c	241$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.97	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	45cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1db9…9917backed Yes	74c	237.65$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.79	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-55%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c7…f199backed No	32c	235$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.2	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e3…545dbacked No	6c	227.86$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.76	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa5…8f79backed No	7c	227.34$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	74	50%37 W · 37 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes	77c	226.87$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.59	198	36.4%72 W · 126 L	-11.1wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No	7c	202.1$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.89	220	30.5%67 W · 153 L	-13.6wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No	6c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	204	2.9%6 W · 198 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No	9c	170.33$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+2.9wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdb7…6cd5backed No	14c	169$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.66	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-3.7wins	-0.19per pick	46cpaid	-53.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked No	13c	154$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.02	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6317…e864backed Yes	68c	152$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.64	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d75…78b9backed Yes	79c	150$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.5	29	79.3%23 W · 6 L	+5.9wins	+0.20per pick	59cpaid	+36.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No	7c	149.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	278	1.8%5 W · 273 L	-9.2wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cc8…05b5backed Yes	77c	149.76$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.15	34	73.5%25 W · 9 L	+4.4wins	+0.13per pick	61cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No	27c	148.32$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.71	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06cd…e124backed No	32c	140$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.8	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-2.6wins	-0.18per pick	40cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes	76c	127.34$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.19	80	30%24 W · 56 L	-9.2wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	23c	115.8$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.3	1,218	17.8%217 W · 1,001 L	-124.0wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa990…84bebacked No	32c	111$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.52	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4faa…fecfbacked No	17c	109$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.53	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d6d…c063backed Yes	77c	100$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22eb…ad17backed No	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	69	55.1%38 W · 31 L	+5.8wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+34%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x700b…aa3cbacked Yes	68c	99$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.68	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.16per pick	56cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e85…1f81backed No	38c	93.99$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.45	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec9…3e46backed Yes	80c	91$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.2	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes	76c	54$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.96	237	41.4%98 W · 139 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d5f6backed No	21c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c5c…7524backed Yes	80c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	40cpaid	-75%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a59…a320backed No	32c	46$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.72	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.9wins	-0.21per pick	49cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	65c	26.15$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.05	140	15%21 W · 119 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes	57c	25.38$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.91	184	44%81 W · 103 L	+7.4wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x216e…9ac8backed Yes	71c	14.09$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.09	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Ryan Coogler be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event