Movies · resolved market
Will Yorgos Lanthimos be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85afdbac4b1826115b6caa2029fb1011894226ee3bed5504b228678755f536e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,375$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 4c | 1,111$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d10abacked Yes | 11c | 1,106$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.07 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Yes | 21c | 952.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…3e46backed Yes | 11c | 527$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 10c | 517.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 4c | 515.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 10c | 512.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 5c | 485.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…b167backed Yes | 11c | 371$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 11c | 360$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de5…d01cbacked Yes | 11c | 354$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234a…cbffbacked Yes | 13c | 350$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 12c | 337.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89df…f8d0backed Yes | 14c | 291.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…b70dbacked Yes | 19c | 270.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c81…af11backed Yes | 19c | 264.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 262.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…d68ebacked Yes | 12c | 233$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 11c | 222$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 11c | 220.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e9…109fbacked Yes | 11c | 217.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 206.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 198.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x941a…90c4backed Yes | 11c | 182$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 177.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 11c | 170$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…857abacked Yes | 11c | 159$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd70b…a152backed Yes | 12c | 149$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Yes | 9c | 140$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 17c | 137.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes | 15c | 134$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked Yes | 11c | 134$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafa5…3873backed Yes | 18c | 105$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked Yes | 15c | 101$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 14c | 84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…7524backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Yorgos Lanthimos be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Benny Safdie be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Chloé Zhao be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Clint Bentley be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Edward Berger be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jafar Panahi be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will James Cameron be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Joachim Trier be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Jon M. Chu be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Josh Safdie be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Kathryn Bigelow be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Kleber Mendonça Filho be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Mona Fastvold be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Noah Baumbach be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Park Chan-wook be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Paul Thomas Anderson be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Ryan Coogler be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Zach Cregger be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.