World Politics · resolved market
Will Lee Jun-seok be arrested by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef3cb38a17233ad7672eb08c4dc54e7a63c5bd8c20ef1a3cbce7fea5bb7e3be1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $212,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $207,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $212,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79fa…8a55backed Yes | 17c | 17,650$2,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,948.08 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x761d…0687backed Yes | 13c | 10,080$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.36 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f866backed Yes | 12c | 8,827$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.97 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd657…9026backed Yes | 12c | 8,377$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Yes | 21c | 5,853$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.53 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e98…ae0fbacked Yes | 22c | 5,361$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.95 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 14c | 4,938$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.28 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0554…da2abacked Yes | 19c | 4,143$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 0c | 4,030$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 13c | 4,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fa…16cbbacked Yes | 13c | 3,833$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.41 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…67fdbacked Yes | 17c | 3,303$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 21c | 3,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.52 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 17c | 2,500$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a85…eca2backed Yes | 14c | 2,447$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,218$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…32cbbacked Yes | 14c | 2,042$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.3 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 17c | 1,972$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.16 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 19c | 1,850$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.13 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,529$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 3c | 1,428$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 19c | 1,332$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed No | 77c | 1,284$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.34 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed Yes | 18c | 1,069$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.49 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef42…c078backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 9cpaid | +168.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb3…305dbacked Yes | 15c | 960.62$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 16c | 900$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 2c | 834.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…5defbacked Yes | 16c | 800$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 790.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked Yes | 14c | 788.11$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.34 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 15c | 775$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d07…293fbacked Yes | 2c | 736.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 19cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 19c | 731.33$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.14 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed Yes | 19c | 670.57$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.75 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6165…6696backed Yes | 14c | 638.23$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…39b8backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 12c | 530.63$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6d…a7b2backed Yes | 17c | 516.59$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b88…86c4backed Yes | 17c | 500$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eef…0e99backed Yes | 5c | 450$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 9c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed Yes | 16c | 394.72$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…690dbacked Yes | 18c | 385.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e91…42e5backed Yes | 7c | 301.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4920…7d06backed Yes | 9c | 291.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe910…8629backed No | 80c | 258$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a2…e144backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…6ba8backed Yes | 26c | 242$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked No | 80c | 225$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0663…4a2bbacked Yes | 19c | 219.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…d260backed Yes | 13c | 209.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a3…c495backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…7d67backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 15c | 197$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes | 19c | 173.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 19c | 149$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca5…6785backed Yes | 8c | 131.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…d08abacked No | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 17c | 118.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.2wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 79c | 104.28$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…b532backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…12cfbacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fd…ec0cbacked Yes | 14c | 71.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 57c | 43.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…1deebacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.