Music · resolved market
Will Justin Bieber's album "SWAG II" debut at #1 in its first week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5904cd59286b73811124d3acd360020ea951a51c13d3ea0e22e068c39ae8b437
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 29c | 412.09$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.02 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53c…67a5backed Yes | 40c | 277$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…1b07backed Yes | 37c | 277$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…db70backed Yes | 41c | 277$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 62c | 274$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.12 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…b814backed Yes | 41c | 240$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 25c | 154.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 92.66$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 77c | 91.7$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…70d7backed No | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 51c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 59c | 72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 45c | 64.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 61cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed Yes | 22c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…0c5dbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…58f8backed Yes | 41c | 31.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9a…ed80backed No | 48c | 26.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 52c | 20.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.