TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) win Best Actor – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,313
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,336

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,313 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 323 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde04…fa37backed Yes73c3,409$2,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.129926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed No1c2,120$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.85616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick8cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x094a…e4a9backed No28c1,060$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.273240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7407…19bebacked No31c994$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.091533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-47.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1617…ec98backed No30c981$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.242733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes69c919$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.693745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed No39c894.7$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.385437%20 W · 34 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6335…ca2bbacked No28c874.67$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.612236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x975b…149bbacked No29c859.86$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d34…7c14backed Yes71c799.95$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.999238%35 W · 57 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bcd…e98bbacked No31c792$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.942737%10 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2604…13ccbacked Yes69c769$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.313452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…db2abacked No30c730$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.461533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b82…1712backed Yes70c725$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.951233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-36.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…24f0backed Yes69c722$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.261250%6 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7775…6cb4backed Yes69c717$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.121758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes70c682$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.61936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No21c647.95$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.0313040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No29c646$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.157136.6%26 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No11c636.7$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.78422.6%19 W · 65 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes71c630.92$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.7215739.5%62 W · 95 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb04e…d4aabacked No34c591.63$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005414.8%8 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick15cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7ef…79d6backed Yes69c581$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.431145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ff…b38fbacked No30c572$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.322437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d9…6f2ebacked No33c528$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1412…b6debacked Yes77c517.82$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.9650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1f3…09e0backed Yes70c513$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.442540%10 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d26…c9f4backed No30c467$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.11526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-55.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x941a…90c4backed Yes70c433$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.21450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19cd…f7ffbacked No30c431$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.32540%10 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9081…0b1ebacked Yes70c418$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.652352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed No28c407.65$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1142420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-48.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x520d…babebacked Yes60c400.11$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.911352.2%59 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae9…2923backed Yes69c397$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.671353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5481…554fbacked Yes80c389.44$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.891172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3df6…0f0fbacked No31c383$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.35742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+51.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Yes73c370.9$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.95957.6%34 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2abd…74ebbacked No31c361$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.472828.6%8 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-53%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked No32c356$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.923330.3%10 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-44.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1584…71b6backed No4c355.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.031546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed No17c339$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.093132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5383…88f0backed No31c326$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.363528.6%10 W · 25 L-5.2wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-45.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x71d2…e109backed No31c316$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.73253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8151…7259backed No32c312$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.84520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-58%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes72c311$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.12634.6%9 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed Yes69c302$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.223234.4%11 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4346…2241backed No31c302$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.223250%16 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed No22c298.54$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.535324.5%13 W · 40 L-6.1wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x21d2…3e62backed No30c294$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.081457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+25.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb338…1ff0backed Yes70c294$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.083240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f55…580cbacked Yes71c281.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.44850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6c…641cbacked No26c279$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b3…a026backed Yes67c276$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f68…21ecbacked No31c273$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.182832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-50.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa9e5…d252backed No31c256$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.342334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8bb…e885backed No31c255$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.072142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No18c254.87$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.115545.5%25 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92d5…cb83backed Yes67c252$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa403…8406backed No25c246$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.99250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71f6…ea40backed No31c245$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.462744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab38…77febacked No32c240$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.561729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-53.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9774…6d3cbacked Yes69c231$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.151241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6882…af89backed No29c230$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2966…e9b9backed Yes71c230$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No32c225.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.181,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x168a…da29backed No28c216.06$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-77.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e47…db27backed No31c213$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.462040%8 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-35.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf666…8842backed Yes69c213$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.462352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e0…a107backed No25c210$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3321…fefbbacked Yes72c207.84$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.84650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba6…0fbdbacked Yes79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.023100%3 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.828528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No25c187.42$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4648236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0845…c4edbacked Yes72c185.44$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.922832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f34…6c53backed No25c180$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes70c173$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0619440.2%78 W · 116 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No26c165.94$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.885911.9%7 W · 52 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-78.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72dd…8be4backed Yes69c164$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.182250%11 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88fa…2cf4backed Yes70c158$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.872528%7 W · 18 L-4.0wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-46.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8522…83b7backed No25c158$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd2b…ebedbacked Yes70c155$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.51010%1 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-85.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf528…4441backed Yes69c154$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.432828.6%8 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfbff…5830backed Yes30c151.11$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.47862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+60.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c1b…2527backed Yes72c149.99$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.75580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0192…ba59backed Yes74c147.65$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.652744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03d8…7631backed No25c141$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes66c140$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.184663%29 W · 17 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+25%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9437…7a9ebacked No25c139$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No17c138.77$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2717010%17 W · 153 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3230…1409backed Yes73c137.87$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f83…7bf4backed Yes74c135.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.351060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc57d…1417backed No25c134$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8032…dca0backed No25c124$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x614b…c407backed No26c119$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes72c117.26$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7636538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e96…c895backed No31c115$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.881428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f35…d295backed No32c111$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2100…2e40backed Yes76c105.62$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.621560%9 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+65.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdf02…31dbbacked No25c104$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No32c103.37$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9915641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.