TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) win Best Actor – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,841
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,127

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,841 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde04…fa37backed Yes24c1,519$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.0829926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes27c716.59$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.4817821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes25c696$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.297136.6%26 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes25c666.1$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.382634.6%9 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10d8…9f12backed No80c659$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.82638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed Yes28c650$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.92540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9720…f4d1backed Yes20c588$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.63243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x159f…333fbacked Yes22c574$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.281353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+65.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes26c508.38$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13118444%81 W · 103 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f5c…91bfbacked No78c447$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.343256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x809a…f315backed No80c405$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd0e…bbffbacked Yes26c377.43$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.45520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-55.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cf8…6ea3backed Yes17c331$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed No71c329.57$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.585437%20 W · 34 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed No78c308.88$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.575324.5%13 W · 40 L-6.1wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8ace…6069backed Yes26c299.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784148.8%20 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes22c285.63$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.822536%9 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3aff…0512backed Yes24c272.21$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No74c260.83$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.9115641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No74c254.18$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8936538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf62b…844abacked No79c253.07$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.071225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-56.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No73c247$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.695911.9%7 W · 52 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-78.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No72c234.53$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.695545.5%25 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe918…d166backed No80c228$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.63063.3%19 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x322a…3274backed Yes20c228$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.62254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+43.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3214…f00ebacked Yes20c217$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.42965.5%19 W · 10 L+4.3wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+26.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1584…71b6backed No68c206.53$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.221546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39be…5e7bbacked Yes20c188$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.62138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed09…3073backed Yes17c184$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No75c169.14$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4323130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b1d…a1e3backed Yes25c168.44$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.881442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes21c164.26$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.161,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7789…9775backed Yes19c147$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f0e…fb12backed Yes22c144$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08b6…d88abacked Yes17c143$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe513…b842backed Yes20c142$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.43246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes20c138.86$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.773336.4%12 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+26.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf859…2784backed Yes17c128$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x750b…7a65backed No78c127$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.941457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2cf…f37cbacked Yes17c116$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e2b…0f57backed Yes26c115.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303119.4%6 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No75c110.21$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0523041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No80c107.19$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7887033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9b05…078abacked Yes24c104.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x396e…340fbacked Yes21c103$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed2b…b0f9backed Yes21c101$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes13c100.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2117010%17 W · 153 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb457…c3ffbacked Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes22c99.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.961,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No70c98.31$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1867232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes22c98.24$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3717041.8%71 W · 99 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9afd…ce64backed Yes21c95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No74c91.48$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5914337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe5d6…4d05backed No78c89.74$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.74650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb54f…b4abbacked Yes17c89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x370b…5f2cbacked Yes23c88.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-47.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6fb…706bbacked Yes17c84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No77c82.83$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.919021.1%19 W · 71 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68df…8816backed Yes17c80$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x527d…0fe5backed Yes17c76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes19c75.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.410632.1%34 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ad4…fdc3backed Yes25c75.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.271323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c8f…9320backed Yes17c75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03b2…567cbacked No80c71$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.23056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x416b…bad6backed Yes21c70$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.85523.6%13 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes25c70$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.52927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-44.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes18c69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7124634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No76c65.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6313130.5%40 W · 91 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xabf7…3e7dbacked Yes17c65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4597…7dd0backed Yes20c64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f2…cbc8backed Yes21c63$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d85…9ed0backed Yes22c59.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.6wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+21.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x86cb…6c6dbacked No78c58.04$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.77944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked No80c56.25$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.253330.3%10 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-44.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f4d…7981backed Yes20c53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04dd…254abacked No78c52$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x089e…55eabacked Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72a9…ce37backed No71c48$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.92977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick65cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x26c4…b3f9backed Yes24c47.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906e…ca01backed No76c45$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5927…672bbacked Yes31c44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.423366.7%22 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x17e7…16aebacked No78c41$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3376…3c7fbacked No64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14fc…09ddbacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf932…2a8ebacked No79c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c83…b8dbbacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-66.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No66c39.42$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5720668.9%142 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01e3…e43fbacked No79c38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18e2…9b0dbacked No79c37$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea4f…73c0backed No79c35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8512…7f2cbacked No76c33.78$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d00…d112backed No79c33$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.042100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ee9…9dabbacked No79c33$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4e7…e5d6backed No79c32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae70…25f4backed No79c31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd1…b1c7backed No79c31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed No74c27.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.171593.3%14 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick77cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x029c…5137backed No76c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick67cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d86…58d7backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.