Token Launches · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid's HIP-3 upgrade go live on mainnet by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc1f4325fe6e7f8aa1ab251e7c8632250e52ff7c67fc9de29f7cd27e9bc6952f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0061…548ebacked Yes | 10c | 940$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2c…5766backed Yes | 2c | 520.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cca…731dbacked No | 24c | 214.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +178.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…8bfdbacked No | 61c | 210.26$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4b…8aa4backed Yes | 72c | 139.32$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04c5…c199backed Yes | 46c | 112.05$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 76c | 110$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 76c | 104.36$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.31 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2c…32a2backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +329.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…8f7ebacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 39c | 41.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyperliquid's HIP-3 upgrade go live on mainnet by September 30?this page
- Will Hyperliquid's HIP-3 upgrade go live on mainnet by December 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.