Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa30bfd04c2cdf89bcb388c59bf7db40eba01ad219aac306d06343330144819aa

Rebuilt 50 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 23, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $232,354
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $237,573

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $232,354 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed No	0c	66,900$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.46	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked No	7c	5,100$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.19	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	30c	3,842$1,143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,698.39	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	44c	3,774$1,677 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,096.94	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	69c	3,477$2,396 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,080.99	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	12c	3,405$392 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,013.02	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes	13c	2,000$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,740	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	4c	1,916$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,837.53	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	14c	1,742$242 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,500.56	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	1,708$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,622.66	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	56c	1,677$945 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$732.1	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	63c	1,668$1,059 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$608.95	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd466…6ce6backed Yes	5c	1,629$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,554.94	66	15.2%10 W · 56 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fb…32e7backed No	12c	1,584$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.47	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	1,380$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,366.57	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes	4c	1,299$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,250.94	68	19.1%13 W · 55 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed No	20c	1,189$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.62	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No	12c	1,181$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.08	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes	4c	1,123$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,073.01	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1589…688bbacked Yes	6c	1,097$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,030.47	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+246%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	7c	1,021$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$944.74	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$950	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	3c	1,000$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$969	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$980	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	7c	944$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$873.75	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb70…b2e2backed Yes	8c	887.65$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$814.15	67	17.9%12 W · 55 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+22%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	9c	838.4$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$762.54	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	72c	761.84$545 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.62	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	7c	702.42$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$652.02	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x46e4…51debacked Yes	7c	686.46$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$636.71	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+53.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	7c	659.14$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$612.73	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	40c	555.02$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.41	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8dce…8f73backed Yes	18c	550$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$453.25	126	23%29 W · 97 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	79c	533.95$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.69	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	10c	506.41$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$454.46	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Yes	75c	500$375 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125	73	28.8%21 W · 52 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	5c	498.84$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$475.66	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6a7…d216backed Yes	37c	483.98$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$304.43	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.12per pick	21cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63dd…c279backed Yes	76c	454.34$343 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.1	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-24%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	5c	453.24$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$430.33	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	9c	442.44$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$403.9	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	4c	425.35$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$409.29	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	9c	416.82$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$377.59	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5377…e6dabacked Yes	75c	400.69$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.69	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	3c	400$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$390	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x899d…4adcbacked Yes	3c	400$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$386.4	44	11.4%5 W · 39 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+42.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes	23c	391.51$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$302.49	92	29.3%27 W · 65 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e00…ea54backed Yes	18c	390.08$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$320.08	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	34c	381.39$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$253.16	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5393…45c5backed Yes	73c	374.49$275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.55	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.14per pick	53cpaid	+68.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9fd…d5b8backed Yes	13c	305.14$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$266.14	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+2.0wins	+0.26per pick	24cpaid	+76.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4586…158cbacked No	55c	298.37$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	34	73.5%25 W · 9 L	+4.5wins	+0.13per pick	60cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0f26…1f12backed Yes	59c	288.21$169 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.34	135	17%23 W · 112 L	-6.9wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x215d…ba6dbacked Yes	18c	280.5$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230.5	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf87c…55b9backed Yes	59c	280$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.92	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe69e…61d2backed Yes	75c	267.41$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.41	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes	67c	260.29$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.29	431	26.2%113 W · 318 L	+2.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2fa5…4f1abacked Yes	79c	255.4$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.85	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+1.6wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	6c	253.13$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$238.3	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	18c	250$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205.5	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbffa…336abacked Yes	11c	248.47$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220.29	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1172…7da0backed Yes	72c	242.65$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.16	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	+86.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bfd…19c8backed Yes	73c	231.8$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.45	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd97b…96aabacked Yes	6c	215.94$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$202.94	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.94per pick	6cpaid	+1,561.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	8c	200.54$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.5	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbed…c997backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$190	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	+3.3wins	+0.10per pick	11cpaid	+78.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xefac…3da3backed Yes	25c	200$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.9	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x752a…282fbacked Yes	16c	200$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	12cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Yes	9c	199.8$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$181.16	347	14.7%51 W · 296 L	+13.8wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes	11c	198.83$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.08	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c00…0788backed Yes	65c	198.81$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.52	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15f1…0593backed Yes	13c	195.11$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.11	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a6…6991backed Yes	22c	190.21$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149.21	78	16.7%13 W · 65 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes	39c	181.71$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.58	102	20.6%21 W · 81 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82e3…1fe4backed Yes	11c	180.01$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160.01	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.89per pick	11cpaid	+800.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes	70c	177.71$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.69	37	54.1%20 W · 17 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ecf…a067backed Yes	18c	172.34$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.61	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes	28c	163.07$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.07	135	19.3%26 W · 109 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes	66c	150.6$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.6	60	38.3%23 W · 37 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes	8c	149.04$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.79	230	19.1%44 W · 186 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19af…dd83backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.86	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x057d…6eddbacked Yes	12c	141.74$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.04	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+38.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46c6…a48ebacked Yes	75c	138.69$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.69	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1f7…6a03backed Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.33	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5d9…4c05backed Yes	41c	128.82$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.56	41	34.1%14 W · 27 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf96d…fca0backed Yes	75c	126.24$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.6	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8d…f2c7backed Yes	30c	123.13$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.19	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.70per pick	30cpaid	+233.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd20a…5754backed Yes	21c	121.74$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.74	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+1.9wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x87d5…fe30backed Yes	77c	114.85$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.62	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a94…ed73backed Yes	44c	112.47$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.47	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.16per pick	28cpaid	-75%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7740…cbcdbacked No	16c	111.12$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.91	40	55%22 W · 18 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b22…1d59backed No	36c	108$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.88	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.19per pick	61cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb57b…73ecbacked No	37c	106.85$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c7a…45bdbacked No	59c	105.74$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.99	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x798f…cef0backed Yes	29c	100$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.63	430	17%73 W · 357 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xece5…bd2cbacked Yes	71c	100$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e3d…3b2fbacked Yes	63c	95.3$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.3	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x189b…c50abacked Yes	69c	94.25$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.59	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-83.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfcd3…a797backed Yes	43c	93.08$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.08	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06e1…8f7ebacked Yes	70c	87.99$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.17	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.18per pick	69cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event