TailMyPicks
Market

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,522
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,341

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,522 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes0c4,939$13 inLost-$13.361715.3%9 W · 162 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes1c4,770$36 inLost-$35.687966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c3,667$13 inLost-$12.761,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes1c2,500$16 inLost-$163876.5%25 W · 362 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes3c2,272$68 inLost-$68.151506%9 W · 141 L-0.3wins0.00per pick6cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes2c2,200$41 inLost-$40.64126.8%11 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes2c2,000$42 inLost-$428206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes5c1,625$83 inLost-$82.686314.3%9 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes11c1,479$162 inLost-$162.225514.5%8 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-56%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes1c1,472$16 inLost-$15.952,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes7c1,145$75 inLost-$74.7828113.5%38 W · 243 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes2c1,049$18 inLost-$1865311%72 W · 581 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd466…6ce6backed Yes3c637.28$17 inLost-$17.396615.2%10 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes5c597.85$27 inLost-$27.4762713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c522.56$19 inLost-$19.342,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes3c517.68$15 inLost-$14.7262412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae50…1c9dbacked Yes3c400$10 inLost-$10100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e00…ea54backed Yes10c400$40 inLost-$40.272828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes7c349.4$24 inLost-$24.0141017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes6c335$20 inLost-$20.19411.7%11 W · 83 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-48.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes9c325.75$30 inLost-$3042110%42 W · 379 L+1.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes8c300.74$24 inLost-$2420717.4%36 W · 171 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbed…c997backed Yes5c200$10 inLost-$103420.6%7 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+78.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ecc…bcb2backed Yes12c125.42$15 inLost-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd811…8d43backed Yes13c77$10 inLost-$10.01333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.