Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcde2c1b1443ce2f97360791bbe462bc33dd4a551a175a381fb54e8ef82d1eb60

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 23, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $109,930
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $44,001

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,930 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	32,869$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.11	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,876$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.66	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes	5c	4,230$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.13	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes	1c	3,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6779…0400backed Yes	9c	2,999$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.95	94	7.4%7 W · 87 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	2,803$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.61	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	2,500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	1c	2,037$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.85	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	2,000$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	14c	1,625$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.07	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes	14c	1,450$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	16c	1,137$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	1c	1,048$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.52	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	5c	765.93$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.85	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ecf…a067backed Yes	1c	731.62$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.37	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd466…6ce6backed Yes	3c	703.05$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.65	66	15.2%10 W · 56 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	20c	674.97$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	3c	610.18$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.46	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	9c	586.1$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.44	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	4c	554.35$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.05	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff0…df18backed Yes	10c	475.64$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.43	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	6c	430.46$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.78	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3038…e902backed Yes	6c	416.07$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.20per pick	14cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e00…ea54backed Yes	19c	399.44$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.76	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	9c	332.88$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.96	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…3da3backed Yes	11c	300$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.98	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19af…dd83backed Yes	20c	297.01$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…d054backed Yes	19c	262.61$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21d9…797cbacked Yes	10c	249.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes	21c	238.1$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a54…7663backed Yes	22c	224.06$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	109	23.9%26 W · 83 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	14c	222.21$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.11	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes	7c	201.2$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.77	145	30.3%44 W · 101 L	-12.4wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked No	78c	199.98$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c16…dd84backed Yes	20c	163.03$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.61	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed Yes	14c	150$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1f7…6a03backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ff4…eb8ebacked Yes	17c	117.5$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	64	31.3%20 W · 44 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9730…4504backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9db5…d5a6backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	12cpaid	+51.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes	14c	98.75$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	92	29.3%27 W · 65 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f5d…8d7bbacked Yes	17c	89.76$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ecc…bcb2backed Yes	17c	87.78$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a0f…37babacked Yes	15c	75.63$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	65	35.4%23 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes	22c	68.18$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	102	20.6%21 W · 81 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e59…a17cbacked No	78c	68.18$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event