Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda186d701ecfa8c63340821f4f4bf943ec05cb602ff77c334ef6fd19f4e0d5f6

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 23, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $168,733
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $76,954

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,733 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	10,371$434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$434.12	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	3c	7,314$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.13	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	5,500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	1c	5,066$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.15	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	8c	4,612$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$377.5	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	6c	3,400$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.4	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6779…0400backed Yes	31c	3,000$930 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$930	94	7.4%7 W · 87 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked No	69c	3,000$2,070 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$930	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	3c	2,591$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.2	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	31c	2,304$723 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$722.6	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	19c	2,200$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	75c	2,174$1,627 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$547.53	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes	7c	2,159$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.86	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes	5c	2,074$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	15c	2,035$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2be3…688fbacked Yes	1c	2,007$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.42	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No	79c	1,984$1,559 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$424.32	209	73.2%153 W · 56 L	+16.3wins	+0.08per pick	65cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes	22c	1,686$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378.4	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	31c	1,625$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498.9	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ecf…a067backed Yes	8c	1,585$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.98	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes	18c	1,572$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.92	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,511$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.48	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	1,390$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.77	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	38c	1,335$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500.85	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	28c	1,301$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.29	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	6c	1,000$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05dd…4d45backed Yes	27c	800$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	11c	753.12$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.2	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	24c	730$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.3	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	14c	700$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbdf7…65d9backed No	79c	668.88$531 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.32	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.12per pick	74cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	23c	608.08$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.57	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44eb…e2b1backed Yes	23c	600.72$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.6	12	25%3 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No	73c	570.46$419 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.28	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	-8.0wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8fe9…78cabacked No	78c	467.45$363 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.34	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes	38c	437.96$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	431	26.2%113 W · 318 L	+2.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9e00…ea54backed Yes	35c	424.26$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0d7…51a0backed Yes	20c	408.32$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	50cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c16…dd84backed Yes	29c	406.21$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.54	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	21c	384.39$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.7	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae50…1c9dbacked Yes	6c	383.27$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.66	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No	69c	383.16$264 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.78	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd466…6ce6backed No	70c	372.82$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.99	66	15.2%10 W · 56 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	77c	364.79$279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.43	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2db1…b18bbacked Yes	21c	362.68$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb765…f696backed Yes	29c	350.83$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-3.2wins	-0.13per pick	25cpaid	-81.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x12c6…8908backed Yes	25c	349.99$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	5c	330.55$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.53	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	14c	320$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.5	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes	22c	312.81$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.55	145	30.3%44 W · 101 L	-12.4wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed No	78c	304.06$238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.57	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	75cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	22c	273.5$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.58	797	35.9%286 W · 511 L	-34.4wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0151…3691backed Yes	28c	268.79$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.12	113	28.3%32 W · 81 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes	39c	263.63$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.69	130	20%26 W · 104 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x215d…ba6dbacked No	76c	263.16$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.16	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…3da3backed Yes	21c	252.31$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff5d…251cbacked Yes	24c	250.39$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.19	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbffa…336abacked Yes	24c	250.07$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.08	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes	20c	234.86$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.67	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2358…cd41backed No	77c	225.08$174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.48	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6b…23b0backed Yes	28c	217.86$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+153.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf142…02c3backed Yes	28c	211.96$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…d054backed Yes	23c	207.35$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.69	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	24c	201.58$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.75	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes	25c	201.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-6.8wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	28c	200$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e59…a17cbacked No	80c	200$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19b1…7dc3backed Yes	35c	200$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.39	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d5…b154backed Yes	31c	200$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes	28c	198.83$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.67	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fa5…4f1abacked Yes	26c	196.43$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.01	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+1.6wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1734…ddd4backed No	79c	195.65$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.09	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc70…3ebcbacked Yes	31c	191.04$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c37…f2ffbacked Yes	21c	190.48$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-2.1wins	-0.17per pick	26cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x74cd…71e1backed Yes	22c	181.13$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No	76c	166.69$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.67	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	64cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	29c	149.66$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.4	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x057d…6eddbacked Yes	28c	140.74$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+38.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67b8…2449backed Yes	26c	139.5$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.27	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.14per pick	29cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fc4…b930backed Yes	13c	132.29$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3493…40afbacked Yes	19c	130.4$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	62	41.9%26 W · 36 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x798f…cef0backed Yes	23c	130$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.7	430	17%73 W · 357 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1589…688bbacked Yes	26c	123.08$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+246%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf87c…55b9backed Yes	25c	120$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.4	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b22…1d59backed No	65c	110$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.4	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.19per pick	61cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc4d…7fe8backed Yes	30c	107.3$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9730…4504backed Yes	27c	100$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a69…dbc4backed Yes	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd06…923dbacked No	70c	100$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.19per pick	61cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xece5…bd2cbacked Yes	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5080…ecd1backed Yes	37c	100$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc55…6f77backed No	70c	99.61$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.61	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13c0…b1a7backed No	80c	99.07$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.07	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	69cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a94…ed73backed Yes	30c	98.76$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.16per pick	28cpaid	-75%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfc4…86acbacked No	80c	98.75$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.75	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	19c	98.55$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.72	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f5d…8d7bbacked Yes	30c	97.33$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event