Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c15013be9644dab0735aeac483693d2daeb1d9d9a81c61083df300a14751a5b

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 23, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $139,161
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $102,377

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,161 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	11c	10,655$1,180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,180.46	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	8c	5,705$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$441.75	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	20c	4,000$817 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$816.99	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked No	61c	3,604$2,207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,397.13	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	65c	3,377$2,195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,181.86	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No	65c	3,202$2,096 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,105.14	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	24c	2,889$683 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$683.03	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	20c	2,599$532 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$532.32	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes	4c	2,500$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	95	3.2%3 W · 92 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-86.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2be3…688fbacked Yes	27c	2,290$619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$619.15	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	12c	2,161$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.35	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fb…32e7backed Yes	12c	2,099$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	24c	2,031$486 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$485.91	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	9c	1,999$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.92	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	19c	1,999$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.88	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes	22c	1,708$372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$371.9	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf7…65d9backed No	77c	1,595$1,226 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$368.56	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.12per pick	74cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c16…dd84backed No	68c	1,558$1,061 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$496.73	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	31c	1,443$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$449.55	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	62c	1,431$881 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$549.82	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	19c	1,416$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.9	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes	45c	1,176$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$525	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-6.8wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5088…8844backed Yes	17c	1,175$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	65	24.6%16 W · 49 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	26c	1,107$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.43	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5cff…83c4backed No	75c	1,049$787 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$262.25	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes	15c	1,000$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.36	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	43c	1,000$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8f9…55f0backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	43	25.6%11 W · 32 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+142.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	12c	999.47$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.94	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	32c	983.15$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.06	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6779…0400backed Yes	26c	969.97$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.19	94	7.4%7 W · 87 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ff4…eb8ebacked Yes	11c	896.61$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.5	64	31.3%20 W · 44 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes	43c	833.05$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.59	431	26.2%113 W · 318 L	+2.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x29a8…3193backed Yes	30c	821.61$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	28c	806.18$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.44	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0654…fabdbacked Yes	42c	721.83$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.61	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	34cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0161…4fecbacked Yes	30c	680$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.7	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26ff…8ed7backed No	77c	649.68$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149.68	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-4.2wins	-0.38per pick	65cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	2c	617$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.34	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9e…4580backed Yes	25c	605.8$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.25	56	25%14 W · 42 L	-4.9wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	30c	575.79$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.67	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	39c	530$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.2	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Yes	36c	513.53$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.77	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-4.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb765…f696backed Yes	37c	511.11$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-3.2wins	-0.13per pick	25cpaid	-81.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	18c	484.59$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.23	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	9c	479.17$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No	72c	478.65$345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.47	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	-8.0wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	33c	460$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.7	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd466…6ce6backed Yes	12c	454.99$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.55	66	15.2%10 W · 56 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	75c	447.21$333 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.97	518	45.9%238 W · 280 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e00…ea54backed Yes	24c	424.3$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	25c	400.8$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	42c	376.66$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.2	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	10c	376$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.6	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6a7…d216backed Yes	21c	367.36$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.75	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.12per pick	21cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	13c	353.29$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.33	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf87c…55b9backed Yes	32c	349.41$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.53	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes	29c	348.97$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	30c	334.73$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.03	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e9f…de68backed Yes	62c	319.91$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.03	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.62per pick	62cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe415…eec9backed Yes	28c	314.87$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.66	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	44c	305.45$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.19	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fa5…4f1abacked Yes	23c	301.09$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.1	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+1.6wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fe0…6387backed Yes	41c	300$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75dd…25cbbacked Yes	17c	294.12$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08bc…068fbacked Yes	31c	293.31$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x892d…1c99backed Yes	18c	271.16$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes	39c	259$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	60	38.3%23 W · 37 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecf…a067backed Yes	23c	240$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.63	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes	19c	237$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.64	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+92.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed No	61c	234.62$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.5	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	26c	232.2$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.03	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1af…5611backed Yes	5c	229.22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.01	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-83%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac96…7ec2backed Yes	23c	217.39$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes	42c	198.83$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.27	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	30c	193.81$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0151…3691backed Yes	24c	193.14$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.56	113	28.3%32 W · 81 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…d054backed Yes	33c	191.26$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.6	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	30c	189.52$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b7f…0380backed Yes	25c	185.05$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.63	36	13.9%5 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No	77c	182.48$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.45	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes	57c	177.9$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	135	19.3%26 W · 109 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	6c	171.91$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.31	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e3d…3b2fbacked Yes	7c	165$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes	44c	164.44$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.45	92	29.3%27 W · 65 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06bc…2887backed Yes	15c	163.97$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	67	14.9%10 W · 57 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x057d…6eddbacked Yes	27c	161.87$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.2	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+38.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc56b…97e2backed No	42c	161.19$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.49	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cc1…a3aebacked Yes	63c	157.69$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	56cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc70…3ebcbacked Yes	39c	154.91$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x44eb…e2b1backed Yes	11c	150$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	12	25%3 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67b8…2449backed Yes	28c	143.11$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.14per pick	29cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	32c	142$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.44	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b62…891ebacked No	71c	140.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.85	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.29per pick	71cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc4…b930backed Yes	26c	140.09$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x798f…cef0backed Yes	31c	132.41$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.1	430	17%73 W · 357 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31ad…b05dbacked Yes	39c	130$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.1	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed No	73c	130$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.5	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12c6…8908backed Yes	63c	128.63$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.04	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event