Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf518e6499382f7317af7e32025b8f16d2f3562dce9339fda61db0e744e0d456f

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 23, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $147,522
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $94,255

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,522 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	24,599$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.06	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	11,400$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	5,280$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	5c	4,550$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.97	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	10c	4,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	3,552$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.71	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No	78c	3,194$2,492 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$702.19	209	73.2%153 W · 56 L	+16.3wins	+0.08per pick	65cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	0c	3,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.78	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6779…0400backed Yes	24c	2,943$703 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$702.97	94	7.4%7 W · 87 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	80c	2,066$1,651 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$415.2	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	4c	1,770$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.75	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes	23c	1,531$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.38	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	11c	1,300$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	14c	1,145$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.3	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69e1…f3fdbacked Yes	23c	1,113$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.89	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-22%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	995.37$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.26	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	19c	800$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.5	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes	4c	759.08$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.6	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	-8.0wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xece5…bd2cbacked Yes	4c	699.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.4	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	5c	695.6$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.71	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes	28c	684.33$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.74	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	24c	549.74$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.98	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	7c	511.84$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.28	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12f0…6a90backed Yes	5c	400$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes	12c	370.36$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.83	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbffa…336abacked Yes	13c	359.76$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	11c	344.48$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.94	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	4c	338.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e00…ea54backed Yes	29c	332.44$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.91	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes	6c	321.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	135	19.3%26 W · 109 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…d054backed Yes	32c	314.03$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b1…7dc3backed Yes	12c	306$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.54	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	15c	290.3$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.42	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No	79c	276.6$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.93	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	68c	265.17$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.85	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x75dd…25cbbacked Yes	19c	263.16$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf7…65d9backed No	74c	251.79$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.18	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.12per pick	74cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	76c	224.48$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.1	518	45.9%238 W · 280 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked No	80c	200$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes	11c	198.83$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.26	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fb…32e7backed Yes	27c	187.77$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.49	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0151…3691backed Yes	6c	183.8$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	113	28.3%32 W · 81 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed No	79c	169.78$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.37	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	75cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff0…df18backed Yes	20c	169.1$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.62	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67b8…2449backed Yes	24c	166.67$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.14per pick	29cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff5d…251cbacked Yes	23c	163.67$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.64	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae50…1c9dbacked Yes	11c	163.27$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.46	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes	33c	151.52$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12c6…8908backed Yes	26c	150$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.5	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	431	26.2%113 W · 318 L	+2.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x44eb…e2b1backed Yes	30c	140$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.4	12	25%3 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	24c	131.3$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.33	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c37…f2ffbacked Yes	31c	130.56$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-2.1wins	-0.17per pick	26cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a0f…37babacked Yes	27c	125.68$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.96	65	35.4%23 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d7…bd8ebacked No	80c	125.55$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.61	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes	22c	115.91$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-6.8wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x798f…cef0backed Yes	18c	113.56$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	430	17%73 W · 357 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf87c…55b9backed Yes	27c	110$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.3	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f5d…8d7bbacked Yes	29c	103.33$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xddca…239abacked Yes	20c	101.58$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	15.9%7 W · 37 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	130	20%26 W · 104 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9730…4504backed Yes	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked No	78c	100$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	151	64.9%98 W · 53 L	+10.2wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a69…dbc4backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…3da3backed Yes	22c	100$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes	24c	100$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	92	29.3%27 W · 65 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9db5…d5a6backed Yes	15c	99.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	12cpaid	+51.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…02c3backed Yes	21c	95.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1f7…6a03backed Yes	22c	90.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf36…94e8backed No	74c	88$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.88	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3493…40afbacked Yes	25c	80$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	62	41.9%26 W · 36 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a94…ed73backed Yes	26c	77.54$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.16per pick	28cpaid	-75%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5fa…fe6ebacked Yes	28c	71.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd466…6ce6backed No	71c	67$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.58	66	15.2%10 W · 56 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe50c…c556backed Yes	20c	55.55$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc54b…6d36backed Yes	23c	52.4$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02d6…796dbacked Yes	32c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa693…4da0backed Yes	22c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-62%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x057d…6eddbacked Yes	32c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+38.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ecc…bcb2backed Yes	34c	44.12$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed No	68c	40.06$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x845e…9401backed Yes	29c	40$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	41	19.5%8 W · 33 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	80c	33.81$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.92	797	35.9%286 W · 511 L	-34.4wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event