Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or higher on September 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7dccc74b3117a0bff750b0605346d942ef7c252649d0b61ce9ae7d11821bb0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 8c | 790.12$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…1747backed No | 7c | 698.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df0…b499backed Yes | 70c | 661.16$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 491.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.74 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 66c | 410.27$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.68 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 3c | 334.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.94 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ea…5799backed No | 38c | 262.65$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes | 13c | 214.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.13 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3593…8b39backed Yes | 6c | 209$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,654.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 70c | 201.13$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa2…29cbbacked Yes | 6c | 186$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,685.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ed…b35abacked Yes | 23c | 171.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +329.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…b22ebacked No | 40c | 171.36$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e2…998abacked Yes | 47c | 132.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.23 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed No | 44c | 114.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…1ec7backed Yes | 58c | 99.47$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…8f7ebacked No | 48c | 59.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd79backed Yes | 58c | 56.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 55c | 42.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…cef6backed Yes | 67c | 29.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or higher on September 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 72°F or below on September 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 73-74°F on September 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75-76°F on September 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on September 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 79-80°F on September 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 81-82°F on September 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.