Movies · resolved market
Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $70m and $75m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05646c42c9f950f51d0907afe89d79b1d5e8eef0e400945ee6ef640805a3c9dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 22c | 2,469$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.84 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 75c | 2,060$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.89 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 46c | 1,840$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.34 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…d56fbacked Yes | 75c | 1,750$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.61 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 42c | 1,026$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.2 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed No | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…75ebbacked Yes | 24c | 813.18$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.43 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3c45backed Yes | 58c | 742.43$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.23 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 52c | 598.94$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.49 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 28c | 566$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.57 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 67c | 524.78$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.78 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 63c | 509.06$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.87 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…6896backed Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed No | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 45c | 500$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.5 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…fcbebacked No | 35c | 301.9$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 24c | 282.68$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.17 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed No | 52c | 231.58$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.89 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…72c1backed No | 15c | 220.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 23c | 217.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.98 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 54c | 199.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 193.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.2 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 60c | 184$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 78c | 132.38$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 65c | 110.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 20c | 105.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.12 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 64c | 105$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…3a31backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…63b2backed Yes | 61c | 91.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0268…9447backed Yes | 34c | 84.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…2725backed Yes | 24c | 84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…1b07backed Yes | 13c | 83.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.22 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 32c | 80.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 21c | 76.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 19c | 55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0b…b4a7backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…b234backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +202.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…9795backed No | 66c | 35.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 49c | 30.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 52c | 28.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5c…e0fcbacked Yes | 62c | 28.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…8f7ebacked No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e5…0b07backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296f…1f8cbacked No | 76c | 19.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $70m and $75m?this page
- Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $65m and $70m?No won
- Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $75m and $80m?No won
- Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $80m and $85m?No won
- Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $65m?No won
- Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $85m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.