Movies · resolved market
Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $75m and $80m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64986bc2243d6316e7c12611dee0f0d0631194a6cbfce58a23de6018457168d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 5c | 5,102$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.56 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x526d…ebd8backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,648$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…8846backed Yes | 8c | 2,499$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.94 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 11c | 2,287$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.9 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e0…5d24backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…75ebbacked Yes | 14c | 1,561$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.06 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 8c | 857.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 735.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 9c | 717.74$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes | 5c | 674.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3c45backed Yes | 3c | 650$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3928…1e39backed Yes | 8c | 505.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9a…31d3backed No | 75c | 329.99$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 27c | 274.51$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 13c | 273.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 69c | 243.98$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…d56fbacked Yes | 23c | 236.94$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 15c | 206.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 33c | 196.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…1b07backed Yes | 15c | 156.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 23c | 146.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x211e…35ddbacked No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 130.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 19c | 117.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06bc…2887backed Yes | 23c | 108$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +168.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…e242backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 15c | 79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…9795backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde0b…b4a7backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x492c…16d1backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d3…634fbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…5eddbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $75m and $80m?this page
- Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $65m and $70m?No won
- Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $70m and $75m?Yes won
- Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $80m and $85m?No won
- Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $65m?No won
- Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $85m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.