Movies · resolved market
Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $65m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2df7fdc740110fb0bad013240224b837c932d6f219d21a8e6a5b4cf7af9f7f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 16,650$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…b6a5backed Yes | 1c | 11,456$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e0…5d24backed Yes | 0c | 10,904$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 76c | 10,465$7,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,486.13 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40b8…da32backed Yes | 0c | 5,283$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…8846backed Yes | 18c | 5,074$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.72 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Yes | 38c | 4,891$1,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,838.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fd…5b80backed Yes | 25c | 4,591$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 24c | 4,263$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.18 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 66c | 4,186$2,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.91 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 73c | 3,577$2,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.11 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…9811backed No | 77c | 3,050$2,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Yes | 9c | 2,868$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.14 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 12c | 2,713$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.96 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 68c | 2,480$1,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.75 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 4c | 2,478$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,167$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…32e3backed Yes | 28c | 2,100$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.4 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed No | 60c | 1,672$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.59 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…d56fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,499$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.06 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0937…5c4cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,306$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d7…c5afbacked Yes | 48c | 1,273$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 11c | 1,202$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.96 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 38c | 1,068$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.08 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…75ebbacked No | 67c | 1,025$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.97 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…3034backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 40c | 1,000$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.75 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 977.08$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.39 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 13c | 800$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f5…cd2ebacked Yes | 27c | 750$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 721.82$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.1 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…9795backed Yes | 9c | 693.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…446abacked Yes | 16c | 629.19$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…63b2backed Yes | 20c | 603.02$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked Yes | 20c | 596.3$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.64 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ea…5799backed No | 75c | 590.46$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 62c | 579$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.34 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296f…1f8cbacked Yes | 19c | 526.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4a…07fbbacked Yes | 18c | 488$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…e0f1backed Yes | 18c | 485.56$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 19c | 458$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.88 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 13c | 450$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked No | 60c | 392.43$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.52 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e81…b4dbbacked Yes | 13c | 325.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14e…7e5fbacked Yes | 13c | 322.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…fc9dbacked Yes | 30c | 281.1$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 16c | 280$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 19c | 213.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d0…f642backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 69c | 165.65$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 20c | 152$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.35 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Yes | 19c | 140$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 33c | 135$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…1b07backed No | 70c | 134.2$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…e242backed No | 74c | 133.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked No | 68c | 120.91$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x230f…fa85backed Yes | 23c | 110.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7826…20b1backed Yes | 39c | 103.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…aab9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…9739backed Yes | 15c | 80.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…5ef3backed Yes | 15c | 72.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…3ff1backed Yes | 24c | 66.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…2725backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb145…e087backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 38c | 44.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf737…9f0dbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…3641backed Yes | 40c | 25.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked No | 64c | 20.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $65m?this page
- Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $65m and $70m?No won
- Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $70m and $75m?Yes won
- Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $75m and $80m?No won
- Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $80m and $85m?No won
- Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $85m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.